La Liga Correct Score Stats: How the Home Price Shapes the Score
Across 7,600 La Liga matches the one-all draw tops the table. The home-win price then redraws the whole correct score map, band by band.
Compiled by Priya NadkarniCorrect Score Predictions specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief7 min read
- La Liga matches, 2005/06–2025/267,600
- most common score: 1-112.1%
- 2-0 rate when home is priced under 1.5013.0%
- fair decimal odds for 0-013.64
This is the La Liga file for correct score predictions. It starts with the question I ask of every division: which scorelines actually land, and how does the market's view of the home side move them? The record covers 2005/06 to 2025/26, 7,600 completed matches averaging 2.67 goals per game, with 1.54 for the hosts and 1.13 for the visitors.
The headline answer is that 1-1 is the single most common score at 12.1%, but that figure hides more than it reveals. Once you split matches by the pre-match home price, the leading scoreline shifts: 2-0 at the short end, 1-1 through the middle bands and 0-1 at the long end. I think a correct score bettor finds their edge in that shift, not in the overall leaderboard.
§ 1One-all and one-nil lead La Liga's scoreline table
The bars rank the ten most frequent full-time scores. 1-1 leads at 12.1%, just ahead of 1-0 at 11.3%, with 2-1 a clear third at 9.0%. Below that the next three are tightly bunched: 2-0 at 7.5%, 0-1 at 7.4% and 0-0 at 7.3%.
That cluster matters. 0-0 at 7.3% carries fair odds of 13.64, while 1-1 at 12.1% works out at 8.29. Those are break-even prices drawn from past frequencies. Correct score markets carry wide margins, so the prices you are actually quoted usually sit well below them, and these shares are a base rate rather than a forecast for any single match.
View the data: la liga: the 10 most common final scores
| Share of 7,600 matches, 2005/06–2025/26 | |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
| 0-1 | 7.4% |
| 0-0 | 7.3% |
| 1-2 | 6.8% |
| 0-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 3-0 | 4.4% |
Together the top ten covered 75.3% of matches, with 3-0 closing the list at 4.4%. My read is that La Liga's goal supply rarely runs away from either side. Low, tight scorelines dominate, and the gap between first and sixth place is narrower than most bettors assume.
§ 2The home price drags the likely score across the grid
This heatmap is the heart of the file. Read across a row to see the score mix within one home-price band. Read down a column to watch a single score rise and fall as the hosts drift from heavy favourite to outsider.
With the home side under 1.50 (1,160 matches), 2-0 is the leading score at 13.0%, edging 1-0 at 12.2%, with 2-1 at 9.3%. In that band 1-1 drops to 5.6% and 0-0 to 3.4%. At the other end, with hosts at 3.50 and up (1,120 matches), 0-1 leads at 12.1%, 0-2 sits at 10.2% and 1-2 at 10.0%, against just 6.1% for a 1-0 home win.
View the data: la liga correct score by home win price
| 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0-2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Under 1.50 · 1,160 | 12.2% | 13.0% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Home 1.50–1.99 · 1,937 | 12.8% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 3.4% |
| Home 2.00–2.49 · 1,942 | 13.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% |
| Home 2.50–3.49 · 1,441 | 10.0% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 15.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 6.9% |
| Home 3.50 and up · 1,120 | 6.1% | 2.2% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
The middle bands are where the draw lives. 0-0 peaks at 9.0% in the 2.00–2.49 band (1,942 matches), and 1-1 reaches 15.1% when the home side is priced 2.50–3.49. I give drawn scorelines the most respect in those evenly matched bands. In the short-priced band, 2-0 earns its keep over the reflexive 1-0.
§ 3Cádiz and Leganés sit atop the goalless draw table
The table covers 31 clubs with at least 150 La Liga matches and shows the top eight and bottom three by 0-0 rate, with each score read from the club's side. Cádiz lead at 11.6% of 190 matches, and their most common score was a 1-1 draw at 17.9%. Leganés follow at 11.1% from 190 and Valladolid at 10.3% from 380.
The bottom of the table is just as telling. Barcelona drew 0-0 in only 4.1% of 760 matches, and their most common score was a 1-0 win at 10.5%. Real Madrid sit at 4.6%, with a 2-0 win at 11.6% as their most frequent result.
| Club | Matches | 0-0 | 1-1 | Most common score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cádiz | 190 | 11.6% | 17.9% | Drew 1-1 (17.9%) |
| Leganés | 190 | 11.1% | 13.7% | Drew 1-1 (13.7%) |
| Valladolid | 380 | 10.3% | 13.7% | Drew 1-1 (13.7%) |
| Osasuna | 608 | 10.0% | 12.5% | Drew 1-1 (12.5%) |
| Deportivo La Coruña | 380 | 10.0% | 13.9% | Drew 1-1 (13.9%) |
| Getafe | 722 | 9.7% | 12.6% | Lost 0-1 (13.9%) |
| Racing Santander | 228 | 9.6% | 16.2% | Drew 1-1 (16.2%) |
| Zaragoza | 228 | 8.3% | 12.3% | Drew 1-1 (12.3%) |
| Las Palmas | 190 | 4.7% | 11.1% | Lost 0-1 (15.8%) |
| Real Madrid | 760 | 4.6% | 7.4% | Won 2-0 (11.6%) |
| Barcelona | 760 | 4.1% | 6.3% | Won 1-0 (10.5%) |
Scores read from the club's side (its goals first).
Getafe stand out as a club whose most common score was a 0-1 defeat at 13.9%, despite a 9.7% goalless rate. I would weight the clubs with 190 matches more lightly than those with several hundred, since a smaller sample swings further on a handful of results.
§ 4Six scores cover half of La Liga matches
The line tracks how much of the league you cover by stacking the most common scores in order. The top three reach 32.3%, and it takes 6 scores to pass the halfway mark, at 54.6%. By twelve scores La Liga reaches 81.7%.
The comparison line is a pool of 22 European divisions. Its top six cover 54.9% and its top twelve 82.4%, so La Liga is fractionally more spread out than the average league. The two curves still run almost on top of each other.
View the data: how many scores cover a la liga match?
| La Liga | 22 European divisions | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.1% | 12.4% |
| 2 | 23.4% | 22.9% |
| 3 | 32.3% | 31.7% |
| 4 | 39.9% | 39.5% |
| 5 | 47.2% | 47.2% |
| 6 | 54.6% | 54.9% |
| 7 | 61.3% | 61.6% |
| 8 | 66.2% | 66.8% |
| 9 | 70.9% | 71.5% |
| 10 | 75.3% | 75.7% |
| 11 | 79.3% | 79.7% |
| 12 | 81.7% | 82.4% |
For me this is the honest limit on correct score betting. Even a dozen well-chosen scorelines leave close to a fifth of matches uncovered. That is why I would rather price two or three scores carefully than scatter stakes across the grid.
Almanac verdict
- Start with the price band
- Check the home price before picking a scoreline. Under 1.50, 2-0 at 13.0% outranks 1-1 at 5.6%, while at 3.50 and up 0-1 leads at 12.1%.
- Respect the mid-band draw
- When the hosts are priced 2.50–3.49, 1-1 reaches 15.1%, and 0-0 peaks at 9.0% in the 2.00–2.49 band. Drawn scorelines earn serious attention in those bands.
- Measure prices against break-even
- Fair odds are 13.64 for 0-0 and 8.29 for 1-1. If the quoted price sits below that line, the historical frequency alone does not justify the bet.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common correct score in La Liga?
1-1 is the most common full-time score, landing in 12.1% of 7,600 matches. It sits just ahead of 1-0 at 11.3% and 2-1 at 9.0%.
How often does a La Liga match finish 0-0?
0-0 finished 7.3% of matches, which gives fair odds of 13.64. The rate falls to 3.4% when the home side is under 1.50 and peaks at 9.0% in the 2.00–2.49 band.
What score is most likely when a heavy favourite plays at home in La Liga?
With the home side priced under 1.50, 2-0 led at 13.0%, followed by 1-0 at 12.2% and 2-1 at 9.3%. Even so, no single scoreline covers most of those matches.
I'm Priya Nadkarni, based in San Diego, and I write the correct score predictions at fixed-match.tips — built on goal distributions and game state, not on guessing a tidy final number.
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