Over/Under & BTTS Probability Calculator
Enter the expected goals for each team to get Poisson probabilities and fair odds for over/under lines, both teams to score, 1X2 and the most likely scores.
How to use the over/under & btts calculator
Enter how many goals you expect each team to score. Season averages or expected goals (xG) figures both work.
The calculator uses the Poisson distribution to work out the chance of every scoreline, then adds them up for each market.
Compare the fair odds with the bookmaker price: if the bookmaker pays more than the fair odds, the bet has value by this model.
Example: With 1.65 expected goals for the home side and 1.10 for the away side, over 2.5 goals comes out at about 52% (fair odds 1.93) and both teams to score at about 54%.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Poisson model?
A statistical model for counting events. Applied to football, it estimates how likely each number of goals is from a team's average.
Where do I get expected goals?
From team goal averages, xG data or your own ratings for attack and defence.
How accurate is Poisson for football?
It is a good baseline but slightly underrates draws and ignores game state. Use it as a starting point.
What are fair odds?
The odds that match the model probability exactly: 1 ÷ probability.