Championship Correct Score Stats: Fair Odds for Every Common Score
Across 11,590 Championship matches, 1-1 is the score to beat at 13.1%. Here are fair odds for every common score, plus how draws, clubs and months shift them.
Compiled by Priya NadkarniCorrect Score Predictions specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief7 min read
- Championship matches, 2005/06–2025/2611,590
- of matches ended 1-113.1%
- fair decimal odds for 1-17.60
- of draws finished 1-148.1%
Most punters treat correct score as a raffle ticket. I treat it as a frequency problem, and the Championship gives me a deep record to work from: 11,590 completed matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26, averaging 2.56 goals per game. The question is simple. What are the fair odds for the scores that keep landing, and where do draws, clubs and months bend the picture?
The headline answer is 1-1. It finished 13.1% of matches, a fair price of 7.60, and it accounts for 48.1% of every draw the division produced. Below it sit 1-0 at 9.41 and 2-1 at 10.59. This file is the base-rate layer beneath my correct score predictions page, so treat each figure as a starting point rather than a verdict.
§ 1One-all heads the Championship's ten most common scores
The table lists each score's count, its share of all matches, a 95% range and the break-even price. 1-1 landed in 1,524 matches, with a range of 12.5%–13.7%, so even the cautious end of that band sits clear of 1-0. Home wins at 1-0 and 2-1 follow, then 0-1, with 0-0 at 7.8% and a fair price of 12.86.
| Score | Matches | Share | 95% range | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 1,524 | 13.1% | 12.5%–13.7% | 7.60 |
| 1-0 | 1,232 | 10.6% | 10.0%–11.2% | 9.41 |
| 2-1 | 1,094 | 9.4% | 8.9%–9.9% | 10.59 |
| 0-1 | 981 | 8.5% | 8.0%–9.0% | 11.81 |
| 0-0 | 901 | 7.8% | 7.3%–8.3% | 12.86 |
| 2-0 | 892 | 7.7% | 7.2%–8.2% | 12.99 |
| 1-2 | 844 | 7.3% | 6.8%–7.8% | 13.73 |
| 2-2 | 625 | 5.4% | 5.0%–5.8% | 18.54 |
| 0-2 | 535 | 4.6% | 4.2%–5.0% | 21.66 |
| 3-0 | 466 | 4.0% | 3.6%–4.4% | 24.87 |
Fair odds = 1 ÷ observed share, with no margin. A price above it would have been value on this record.
The caveat I hold onto throughout is that these are break-even prices with no margin built in. Correct-score books carry heavy margins, so quoted odds usually sit well below them. Squads also change every summer through promotion and relegation, which makes this a base rate, not a forecast for any single match.
§ 2Draw price shifts the mix between goalless and high draws
Of 3,166 Championship draws, 28.5% finished 0-0, 48.1% finished 1-1 and 23.4% were 2-2 or higher. The chart splits those draws by the pre-match draw price, and the shape moves in a clear direction. When the draw was priced under 3.20, 34.6% of the 205 draws were goalless; at 4.00 and up, across 211 draws, that share fell to 22.7%.
View the data: how championship draws end, by draw price
| 0-0 | 1-1 | 2-2 or higher | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All draws · 3,166 | 28.5% | 48.1% | 23.4% |
| Draw Under 3.20 · 205 | 34.6% | 53.2% | 12.2% |
| Draw 3.20–3.59 · 2,187 | 28.4% | 47.9% | 23.6% |
| Draw 3.60–3.99 · 563 | 28.4% | 47.6% | 24.0% |
| Draw 4.00 and up · 211 | 22.7% | 46.9% | 30.3% |
The high-scoring draws move the other way, from 12.2% to 30.3%. A short draw price usually signals a tight, low-event game, and the scorelines follow. Both outer bands are small samples, so I read them as direction rather than precision, while the middle band of 2,187 draws looks much like the overall split.
§ 3Home-win scores outrun their away mirrors on every line
Each row pairs a home-win score with the same result for the visitors. Home sides won 43.4% of matches against 29.3% for away sides, and the scorelines carry that edge: 1-0 at 10.6% against 0-1 at 8.5%, a ratio of 1.26 to 1. 2-0 came in 1.67 times as often as 0-2, and 2-1 1.30 times as often as 1-2.
View the data: championship: home-win scores vs away mirrors
| Home win score | Away win mirror | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 vs 0-1 (1,232 vs 981 matches) | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| 2-0 vs 0-2 (892 vs 535 matches) | 7.7% | 4.6% |
| 2-1 vs 1-2 (1,094 vs 844 matches) | 9.4% | 7.3% |
| 3-0 vs 0-3 (466 vs 214 matches) | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| 3-1 vs 1-3 (430 vs 303 matches) | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| 3-2 vs 2-3 (294 vs 212 matches) | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| 4-0 vs 0-4 (157 vs 69 matches) | 1.4% | 0.6% |
The gap widens in relative terms as the margin grows. 3-0 sits at 4.0% against 0-3 at 1.8%, and 4-0 at 1.4% against 0-4 at 0.6%. If a book prices an away rout close to its home mirror, the record says that symmetry is wrong.
§ 4Fulham, Blackpool and Southampton finished 1-1 most often
This chart ranks clubs with at least 150 Championship matches by how often they finished 1-1. Fulham top it at 16.7% of 276 matches, ahead of Blackpool at 15.7% of 414 and Southampton at 15.2% of 322. Brighton round off the top 12 at 14.0% of 322.
View the data: championship clubs with the highest 1-1 rate
| % of each club's league matches, 2005/06–2025/26; matches in brackets | |
|---|---|
| Fulham (276) | 16.7% |
| Blackpool (414) | 15.7% |
| Southampton (322) | 15.2% |
| West Brom (460) | 15.0% |
| Huddersfield (460) | 15.0% |
| Charlton (368) | 14.9% |
| Ipswich (736) | 14.9% |
| Birmingham (736) | 14.8% |
| Crystal Palace (368) | 14.7% |
| Coventry (598) | 14.5% |
| Nottingham Forest (644) | 14.4% |
| Brighton (322) | 14.0% |
Every club here sits above the league-wide 13.1%, but the spread between them is narrow, and several passed through the division in very different eras. I use a club's 1-1 rate as a modest tilt, never as a reason to override how the two teams actually create and concede chances.
§ 5September peaks for both 0-0 and 1-1
The line chart tracks both low-scoring draws across the calendar. September was the high point for each, with 0-0 at 8.7% of 1,115 matches and 1-1 at 14.5%. 1-1 dipped lowest in February, at 11.1% of 1,343 matches, while 0-0 was rarest in May, at 5.4% of just 239 games.
View the data: championship 0-0 and 1-1 rate by month
| 0-0 | 1-1 | |
|---|---|---|
| Aug | 7.0% | 13.8% |
| Sep | 8.7% | 14.5% |
| Oct | 7.4% | 14.0% |
| Nov | 8.7% | 12.1% |
| Dec | 7.8% | 12.0% |
| Jan | 7.2% | 13.5% |
| Feb | 8.3% | 11.1% |
| Mar | 8.5% | 14.3% |
| Apr | 6.9% | 13.5% |
| May | 5.4% | 13.0% |
May's figure rests on a small sample, so I would not lean on it hard. My reading is that early-season caution shows up in the low scores, while the final weeks bring more open games with something at stake.
Almanac verdict
- Start from 7.60
- One-all is the league's most common score at 13.1%. Only back it when the quoted price clears 7.60 by enough to absorb the market's margin.
- Read the draw price
- Under 3.20, 34.6% of draws were 0-0 and only 12.2% were 2-2 or higher, while at 4.00 and up high draws rose to 30.3%. Let the draw odds steer which drawn score you favour.
- Respect the home tilt
- Home-win scores beat their away mirrors on every line, from 1.26 to 1 at 1-0 against 0-1 to 4.0% against 1.8% for 3-0 against 0-3. Do not accept symmetric pricing on lopsided away scores.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common correct score in the Championship?
1-1, which finished 13.1% of 11,590 matches between 2005/06 and 2025/26. 1-0 is next at 10.6%, followed by 2-1 at 9.4%.
What are fair odds for a 0-0 in the Championship?
0-0 landed in 7.8% of matches, which converts to a fair price of 12.86. It was most frequent in September at 8.7% and rarest in May at 5.4%.
How often do Championship draws finish 1-1?
48.1% of the 3,166 draws finished 1-1, with 28.5% ending 0-0 and 23.4% at 2-2 or higher.
I'm Priya Nadkarni, based in San Diego, and I write the correct score predictions at fixed-match.tips — built on goal distributions and game state, not on guessing a tidy final number.
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