Bundesliga Correct Score Stats: Fewer 0-0s Than Europe
Across 6,426 matches, the Bundesliga starves the low scorelines Europe leans on. Here is where the goals go instead, where a simple model slips, and how the leading clubs finish.
Compiled by Priya NadkarniCorrect Score Predictions specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Bundesliga matches, 2005/06โ2025/266,426
- of matches ended 0-06.2%
- 1-0 vs 22-division European averageโ3.2 pts
- goals per game2.98
Most people treat correct score as a lottery ticket. I treat it as a distribution, and the Bundesliga's distribution is unusually stretched. Across 6,426 completed matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26, the league averaged 2.98 goals per game, split 1.67 home and 1.31 away. I keep the day-to-day work on my exact score predictions page; this file is the base rate underneath it.
The headline is simple. The scores that anchor most European leagues, 1-0 and 0-0, land noticeably less often here, and the surplus drifts towards higher totals. 1-0 runs at 7.3% against 10.5% across Europe, the single biggest gap among the scores I charted.
ยง 1Bundesliga trails Europe on 1-0, 0-0 and 0-1
This dumbbell sets the Bundesliga against a pool of 156,274 matches from 22 European divisions, score by score. The shortfall at the bottom of the scoring range is the story: 1-0 sits โ3.2 points below the pool, 0-0 lands 6.2% against 7.8%, and 0-1 trails too, at 5.9% against 7.7%.
Only one of the 8 scores charted runs above Europe, and barely: 2-2 at 5.5% against 5.2%. 2-1 matches the pool exactly at 8.8%, and 1-1, the league's commonest result, still comes in slightly under at 11.8% against 12.4%.
Pool: 156,274 matches from 22 European divisions, this league included. Bars show the league's 95% range.
View the data: bundesliga vs the 22-division european average
| 22 European divisions | Bundesliga | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 (756 matches) | 12.4% | 11.8% | ยฑ0.8 |
| 2-1 (566 matches) | 8.8% | 8.8% | ยฑ0.7 |
| 1-0 (471 matches) | 10.5% | 7.3% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 2-0 (460 matches) | 7.7% | 7.2% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 1-2 (408 matches) | 6.7% | 6.3% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 0-0 (396 matches) | 7.8% | 6.2% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 0-1 (379 matches) | 7.7% | 5.9% | ยฑ0.6 |
| 2-2 (352 matches) | 5.2% | 5.5% | ยฑ0.6 |
For context, the Bundesliga's 0-0 rate is the fourth-lowest of the 22 divisions, while Ligue 2 tops the list at 10.5%. If a price on a goalless draw or a narrow home win has been set from a generic European template, it is probably too generous to the bettor's side of nothing.
ยง 2Home goals spread wide across the Bundesliga score grid
The heatmap places every full-time score in a home-by-away cell. The bright centre is 1-1 at 11.8%, then 2-1 at 8.8%, with 1-0 and 2-0 almost level at 7.3% and 7.2%. What strikes me is how much colour survives once you move down into the three-goal rows.
3-1 holds 4.8%, 3-0 4.3% and 3-2 2.6%, and the 4+ v 0 corner still carries 3.8% of all matches. The away mirror of that corner is only 1.5%, and 0-2 at 4.5% sits well short of 2-0. Home sides do not just win more; they win by more.
4+ groups four or more goals for that side.
View the data: bundesliga score grid: home goals ร away goals
| Away 0 | Away 1 | Away 2 | Away 3 | Away 4+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home 0 | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Home 1 | 7.3% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Home 2 | 7.2% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Home 3 | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Home 4+ | 3.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
Among the higher draws, 2-2 at 5.5% is a genuine contender, while 3-3 at 1.5% is a rare outcome. I treat the lower-left of this grid as live territory in this league, not decoration.
ยง 3Poisson underrates 0-0 and overrates the narrow 1-0
Here I compare the 10 most common scores with a simple Poisson model built on 1.67 home and 1.31 away goals. Positive bars mean the league produced the score more often than the model expects. The model predicts 0-0 in 5.1% of matches; the league delivered 6.2%, a +1.1 point miss.
The opposite error sits right next to it. The model says 1-0 should land 8.5% of the time; actual is 7.3%, a โ1.2 point overrate. 1-2 and 0-1 are also overstated, by โ1 and โ0.8 points, while 1-1 beats its 11.1% forecast at 11.8%.
View the data: bundesliga: actual score rate minus poisson model
| Actual minus model | |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | +0.7% |
| 2-1 | โ0.5% |
| 1-0 | โ1.2% |
| 2-0 | +0.1% |
| 1-2 | โ1.0% |
| 0-0 | +1.1% |
| 0-1 | โ0.8% |
| 2-2 | โ0.6% |
| 3-1 | โ0.3% |
| 0-2 | +0.1% |
So the Bundesliga is high-scoring, yet goalless and level games still cluster more than independent goals would allow. If you price from a raw Poisson, nudge 0-0 and 1-1 up and the one-goal wins down.
ยง 4Bayern win by 2-1 while rivals settle on 1-1
The table lists the six clubs with the most points per game, scores read from the club's side. Bayern Munich, at 2.28 points per game over 714 matches, most often won 2-1 at home (10.1%) and away (10.6%), and won by three or more in 31.0% of games. That is roughly double the rate for Borussia Dortmund at 17.1% and RB Leipzig at 17.6%.
Further down, 1-1 takes over. Dortmund and Leipzig both default to 1-1 away, at 12.3% and 11.2%, and Bayer Leverkusen, Schalke 04 and Stuttgart show 1-1 as their top score both home and away.
| Club | Matches | Pts/game | Top home score | Top away score | 3+ goal wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 714 | 2.28 | Won 2-1 (10.1%) | Won 2-1 (10.6%) | 31.0% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 714 | 1.85 | Won 2-0 (9.5%) | Drew 1-1 (12.3%) | 17.1% |
| RB Leipzig | 340 | 1.83 | Won 2-1 (11.8%) | Drew 1-1 (11.2%) | 17.6% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 714 | 1.73 | Drew 1-1 (10.9%) | Drew 1-1 (9.2%) | 14.7% |
| Schalke 04 | 578 | 1.48 | Drew 1-1 (11.8%) | Drew 1-1 (11.1%) | 8.8% |
| Stuttgart | 646 | 1.39 | Drew 1-1 (10.2%) | Drew 1-1 (10.2%) | 9.6% |
Scores read from the club's side (its goals first).
One caveat governs everything above: these are past frequencies, and promotion, relegation and squad changes move the mix each year, while correct-score markets carry wide margins that leave quoted prices well below fair odds. Use the shares as a base rate, not a forecast for any single match.
Almanac verdict
- Shade the 1-0
- 1-0 lands 7.3% here against 10.5% across Europe, and even Poisson overrates it at 8.5%. A short price on a narrow home win deserves scepticism in this league.
- Respect the goalless draw
- 0-0 is rare by European standards at 6.2%, fair odds 16.23, yet still beats the model's 5.1%. Compare quotes against 16.23 rather than against a Poisson figure.
- Separate Bayern from everyone
- Bayern won by three or more in 31.0% of games, so their margin lines sit in a different world. For the chasing pack, 1-1 is the recurring away result.
Questions bettors ask
How often does a Bundesliga match end 0-0?
Across 6,426 matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26, 0-0 finished 6.2% of the time, fair odds 16.23. That is the fourth-lowest rate of 22 European divisions, against a pooled 7.8%.
What is the most common correct score in the Bundesliga?
1-1, at 11.8% of matches, which works out to fair odds of 8.50. It is still slightly below the European pool's 12.4%.
How often do Bayern Munich win by three or more goals?
In 31.0% of their 714 matches in the record. Their most frequent single score was a 2-1 win, at 10.1% at home and 10.6% away.
I'm Priya Nadkarni, based in San Diego, and I write the correct score predictions at fixed-match.tips โ built on goal distributions and game state, not on guessing a tidy final number.
View profile โ
