Premier League Home, Draw or Away? 1X2 Results Over 21 Seasons
Twenty-one Premier League seasons of home, draw and away results, set against the favourite's price, show a league priced accurately and a home edge that has slowly worn down.
Compiled by Talia RosenWin-Draw-Win (1X2) specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Premier League home win rate45.6%
- Draw rate24.3%
- Away win rate30.1%
- Favourite win rate54.8%
Every Premier League 1X2 price is a claim about three probabilities. Before I argue with any of them, I want to know what the league itself has produced. This study covers 7,980 matches with full odds across 21 seasons, 2005/06–2025/26, and asks two questions: how the results split, and whether the favourite wins as often as its price says it should.
The headline split is 45.6% home wins, 24.3% draws and 30.1% away wins, and the favourite won 54.8% of the time. Prices tracked results closely in every band, so any edge here is narrow. It comes from price shopping and discipline, not from a blanket angle. Everything on my win-draw-win betting tips page starts from these baselines.
§ 1Home advantage has eroded while the draw climbs back
The line chart tracks each result's share of matches, season by season. Home wins peaked at 50.8% in 2009/10 and bottomed out at 37.9% in 2020/21. That was the empty-stadium season, when away wins reached a high of 40.3%. The draw line is the most restless of the three, ranging from 18.7% in 2018/19 to 29.2% in 2010/11.
The clearest story sits at the two ends of the chart. The opening season split 50.5% home, 20.3% draws and 29.2% away. The latest split 42.6% home, 27.4% draws and 30.0% away. Home wins have given ground, and most of it has gone to the draw rather than to the away side.
View the data: premier league: home, draw and away by season
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 50.5% | 20.3% | 29.2% |
| 2006/07 | 47.9% | 25.8% | 26.3% |
| 2007/08 | 46.3% | 26.3% | 27.4% |
| 2008/09 | 45.5% | 25.5% | 28.9% |
| 2009/10 | 50.8% | 25.3% | 23.9% |
| 2010/11 | 47.1% | 29.2% | 23.7% |
| 2011/12 | 45.0% | 24.5% | 30.5% |
| 2012/13 | 43.7% | 28.4% | 27.9% |
| 2013/14 | 47.1% | 20.5% | 32.4% |
| 2014/15 | 45.3% | 24.5% | 30.3% |
| 2015/16 | 41.3% | 28.2% | 30.5% |
| 2016/17 | 49.2% | 22.1% | 28.7% |
| 2017/18 | 45.5% | 26.1% | 28.4% |
| 2018/19 | 47.6% | 18.7% | 33.7% |
| 2019/20 | 45.3% | 24.2% | 30.5% |
| 2020/21 | 37.9% | 21.8% | 40.3% |
| 2021/22 | 42.9% | 23.2% | 33.9% |
| 2022/23 | 48.4% | 22.9% | 28.7% |
| 2023/24 | 46.1% | 21.6% | 32.4% |
| 2024/25 | 40.8% | 24.5% | 34.7% |
| 2025/26 | 42.6% | 27.4% | 30.0% |
My takeaway is that old priors about home advantage overstate it. A home price built on the league's early years will usually be too short. I also refuse to treat the draw as a fixed constant, because it swings by several points from one season to the next.
§ 2Favourites win slightly more often than their prices imply
Each row compares the favourite's margin-free chance, taken from a major bookmaker's odds with the overround stripped out, against how often it actually won. Favourites priced under 1.30 won 80.6% of 768 matches against a priced chance of 79.2%, with a 95% range of ±2.8 points. In the 1.70–1.99 band they won 54.4% of 1,613 matches against 52.5% (±2.4). At 2.30+ they won 39.2% of 1,784 against 38.8% (±2.3).
View the data: favourites by price: priced vs actual win rate
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.30 (768 matches) | 79.2% | 80.6% | ±2.8 |
| 1.30–1.49 (1,000 matches) | 69.2% | 71.9% | ±2.8 |
| 1.50–1.69 (1,141 matches) | 60.3% | 62.2% | ±2.8 |
| 1.70–1.99 (1,613 matches) | 52.5% | 54.4% | ±2.4 |
| 2.00–2.29 (1,634 matches) | 45.0% | 44.4% | ±2.4 |
| 2.30+ (1,784 matches) | 38.8% | 39.2% | ±2.3 |
Results run slightly ahead of the price in most bands. Every gap still sits inside its range, though, so I read this as an accurately priced market with a faint lean towards favourites, not as a flaw to exploit. The 2.00–2.29 band is the exception: there the favourite came in a touch below its priced chance.
§ 3Best prices turn a small loss into a slim profit
This chart shows the flat-stake return from backing every favourite in each band, at the main price and at the best price on offer. Across all favourites, the main price returned −2.5% and the best price +0.8%. The strongest band at the main price was 1.30–1.49 (−0.5%). The weakest was 2.00–2.29 (−5.5%), the same band where results fell short of the price on the previous chart.
Here is the caveat I would put in bold: small edges of a point or two can arise by chance. Best-price returns also assume every bet was struck at the top price available, which rarely happens in practice. Neither figure is a system.
View the data: backing the favourite: flat-stake return by price
| Main price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.30 | −2.7% | −0.2% |
| 1.30–1.49 | −0.5% | +2.7% |
| 1.50–1.69 | −1.3% | +1.9% |
| 1.70–1.99 | −0.8% | +2.7% |
| 2.00–2.29 | −5.5% | −2.0% |
| 2.30+ | −3.0% | +0.5% |
| All favourites | −2.5% | +0.8% |
What this tells me is that the gap between losing and breaking even is the price itself. The selection matters less than where you place it. I would never back a favourite at the first number I see when a sharper price may be sitting elsewhere.
§ 4Manchester City and Liverpool set the home benchmark
The table ranks clubs with 100+ league matches by home win rate over 2016/17–2025/26. Manchester City won 76.8% of 190 home matches, the best record in the league, and Liverpool followed at 71.6%. Southampton sat at the foot, winning 25.0% of 152 home games.
The draw column deserves as much attention as the win column. Crystal Palace drew 30.0% of their home games, well above the league's overall draw rate. That is exactly the kind of profile where double chance or the draw itself can be worth a look over a straight home win.
| Club | Home games | Home won | Drawn | Lost | Away won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 190 | 76.8% | 14.2% | 8.9% | 64.7% |
| Liverpool | 190 | 71.6% | 21.1% | 7.4% | 53.7% |
| Arsenal | 190 | 67.9% | 17.4% | 14.7% | 46.3% |
| Tottenham | 190 | 58.4% | 13.2% | 28.4% | 40.0% |
| Manchester United | 190 | 56.3% | 24.2% | 19.5% | 43.2% |
| Chelsea | 190 | 55.3% | 24.7% | 20.0% | 47.4% |
| Aston Villa | 133 | 50.4% | 20.3% | 29.3% | 35.3% |
| Newcastle | 171 | 47.4% | 22.2% | 30.4% | 29.2% |
| Watford | 95 | 32.6% | 22.1% | 45.3% | 20.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 190 | 32.6% | 30.0% | 37.4% | 30.0% |
| Sheffield United | 57 | 29.8% | 14.0% | 56.1% | 12.3% |
| Burnley | 152 | 29.6% | 24.3% | 46.1% | 21.1% |
| West Brom | 57 | 26.3% | 29.8% | 43.9% | 14.0% |
| Southampton | 152 | 25.0% | 27.6% | 47.4% | 22.4% |
These records mix very different squads across ten seasons, so I use them as context for how a ground tends to play, never as a reading of current strength. Form, injuries and motivation in the present always come first.
Almanac verdict
- Price the draw honestly
- The draw landed 24.3% of the time overall and ranged from 18.7% to 29.2% by season, so give it a real probability before you dismiss it. The latest season's 27.4% is a reminder that it can rise quickly.
- Shop every favourite price
- Backing all favourites returned −2.5% at the main price and +0.8% at the best price. The difference between those two numbers is the whole game.
- Respect the 2.00–2.29 band
- This was the weakest favourite band at −5.5% at the main price, and the only band where the favourite won less often than its priced chance. Demand a clear reason before backing a favourite at these odds.
Questions bettors ask
How often does the home team win in the Premier League?
Across 7,980 matches from 2005/06–2025/26, home teams won 45.6% of the time. The rate has fallen from 50.5% in 2005/06 to 42.6% in 2025/26.
How often does the favourite win a Premier League match?
Across 7,940 matches with a clear favourite, the favourite won 54.8%, drew 24.3% and lost 20.9%. Short favourites priced under 1.30 won 80.6% of the time.
Is backing every Premier League favourite profitable?
Not at the main price: flat stakes on every favourite returned −2.5%. At the best price available the return was +0.8%, but that assumes you always got the top price, which is rarely achievable.
I'm Talia Rosen, based in Las Vegas, and I write the win-draw-win tips at fixed-match.tips — treating the match-result market as a question of price against probability, never of backing the bigger badge.
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