Premier League HT/FT Stats: All Nine Results and Their Fair Odds
Twenty-one seasons of Premier League half-time and full-time scores, sorted into all nine HT/FT results. Here is how often each one lands, its fair price, and which clubs hold a lead.
Compiled by Greta JanssensHalf Time / Full Time specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Home/Home share of Premier League matches28.1%
- fair odds for Home/Home3.56
- Draw/Draw share14.8%
- home sides leading at HT who won79.9%
Half-time/full-time asks for more than a winner. It asks how the match is paced, and that question runs through everything on my half-time/full-time tips page. For this file I took every Premier League match from 2005/06 to 2025/26, 7,980 in all, and asked how often each of the nine results lands and which clubs convert a half-time lead.
The headline answer is plain. Home/Home is the most common result at 28.1%, a fair price of 3.56, and the draw is the half-time state that matters most. 40.5% of matches were level at the break. That level start is where most of the uncertainty in this market sits, and so it is where most of my work in this league happens.
§ 1Home/Home leads, and the reversals barely register
The chart ranks all nine combinations by share. Home/Home sits well clear at 28.1%, with Away/Away next at 17.3% (fair odds 5.80). Draw/Home at 14.9% (fair odds 6.70) and Draw/Draw at 14.8% (fair odds 6.75) are almost level with each other. At the bottom, Home/Away is the rarest result at 2.1%, which works out to fair odds of 48.07.
View the data: the nine ht/ft results, ranked
| Share of 7,980 Premier League matches, half-time / full-time result | |
|---|---|
| Home/Home | 28.1% |
| Away/Away | 17.3% |
| Draw/Home | 14.9% |
| Draw/Draw | 14.8% |
| Draw/Away | 10.8% |
| Home/Draw | 5.0% |
| Away/Draw | 4.5% |
| Away/Home | 2.5% |
| Home/Away | 2.1% |
What I take from this is the shape rather than any single bar. The top of the chart is about teams who lead early and keep going. The middle is about matches that start level and turn after the break. The reversals at the foot are long shots for good reason. Price them as long shots, and don't treat them as hidden value.
§ 2A half-time lead usually holds, a level game does not
This is the chart I'd study longest. When the home side led at the break, across 2,807 matches, it won 79.9%, drew 14.2% and lost only 5.9%. Away sides ahead at half-time held on less often, winning 71.0% of 1,939 matches, with 18.5% drawn and 10.5% turned round into home wins.
The level row is the interesting one. From 3,234 matches that were all square at half-time, the home side won 36.8%, 36.6% stayed drawn and the away side won 26.6%. Those first two figures are practically a coin toss, which is why Draw/Home and Draw/Draw sit side by side in the ranking.
View the data: where each half-time state ends up
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home led at HT (2,807) | 79.9% | 14.2% | 5.9% |
| Level at HT (3,234) | 36.8% | 36.6% | 26.6% |
| Away led at HT (1,939) | 10.5% | 18.5% | 71.0% |
For a bettor, this tells you where the market lives. A selection that starts with a draw at the break is really a bet on the second half. That is where substitutions, tiring legs and changes of shape do their work.
§ 3Home/Home swings season to season around a steady middle
The two lines track Home/Home and Draw/Draw across 21 seasons. Home/Home peaked at 33.9% in 2009/10 and bottomed out at 24.7% in 2020/21, which was the season played in empty stadiums. In 2025/26, the latest complete season, it was back at 28.4%, very close to the long-run figure.
Draw/Draw moves more nervously, from 10.8% in 2013/14 to 18.7% in 2015/16, and it finished 2025/26 at 16.6%. A run of seasons below the long-run average can tempt you to call a new era. The line keeps drifting back.
View the data: home/home and draw/draw, season by season
| Home/Home | Draw/Draw | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 32.1% | 13.7% |
| 2006/07 | 30.0% | 17.4% |
| 2007/08 | 28.7% | 16.3% |
| 2008/09 | 26.3% | 16.3% |
| 2009/10 | 33.9% | 15.8% |
| 2010/11 | 30.0% | 18.4% |
| 2011/12 | 27.9% | 14.2% |
| 2012/13 | 25.5% | 17.6% |
| 2013/14 | 29.2% | 10.8% |
| 2014/15 | 28.4% | 16.6% |
| 2015/16 | 25.0% | 18.7% |
| 2016/17 | 30.8% | 13.2% |
| 2017/18 | 27.1% | 17.6% |
| 2018/19 | 27.9% | 11.1% |
| 2019/20 | 27.4% | 13.2% |
| 2020/21 | 24.7% | 13.9% |
| 2021/22 | 25.5% | 13.4% |
| 2022/23 | 30.5% | 13.4% |
| 2023/24 | 25.0% | 11.3% |
| 2024/25 | 25.5% | 11.8% |
| 2025/26 | 28.4% | 16.6% |
I treat a single season as noise unless something structural has changed. One season is a small sample against nearly eight thousand matches, so I anchor on the long-run share and adjust only gently.
§ 4Liverpool and the Manchester clubs protect leads best
The table shows the top six and bottom four of the 24 clubs with 150+ matches. Liverpool turned 87.8% of their 337 half-time leads into wins, and Manchester United (87.7% of 341) and Manchester City (87.7%) sat just behind. City led at the break most often of all, in 381 matches (47.7%). At the other end, Sunderland won only 61.8% of 102 matches they led at half-time, with Southampton, Wigan and West Brom close by.
The last column is the one I watch for comebacks. Manchester United won 19.4% of the matches they trailed at half-time, and Chelsea won 18.1%. Liverpool won 14.5% of their 152 deficits. The bottom four rarely won from behind at all, and Wigan managed just 3.0%.
| Club | Matches | Led at HT (share) | Won from HT lead | Trailed at HT | Won from behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 798 | 337 (42.2%) | 87.8% | 152 | 14.5% |
| Manchester United | 798 | 341 (42.7%) | 87.7% | 155 | 19.4% |
| Manchester City | 798 | 381 (47.7%) | 87.7% | 136 | 11.8% |
| Arsenal | 798 | 317 (39.7%) | 85.2% | 166 | 13.3% |
| Chelsea | 798 | 341 (42.7%) | 83.3% | 138 | 18.1% |
| Leicester | 380 | 100 (26.3%) | 82.0% | 127 | 7.9% |
| West Brom | 418 | 82 (19.6%) | 64.6% | 159 | 3.8% |
| Wigan | 304 | 69 (22.7%) | 62.3% | 99 | 3.0% |
| Southampton | 456 | 127 (27.9%) | 62.2% | 154 | 3.9% |
| Sunderland | 456 | 102 (22.4%) | 61.8% | 153 | 4.6% |
The usual caveat applies here, and I mean it. Half-time/full-time prices aren't in the record, so none of these fair odds has been tested against the market. Past shares describe what happened. They are not a forecast or a system, so check every price you are offered against them.
Almanac verdict
- Anchor on long-run fair odds
- Home/Home at 3.56 and Draw/Draw at 6.75 are your reference prices. If a quoted price sits shorter than the fair figure, the bookmaker's margin is doing the work rather than the football.
- Respect the level half-time
- 40.5% of matches are level at the break. From there, home wins (36.8%) and draws (36.6%) are near-equal, so weigh second-half habits before picking between Draw/Home and Draw/Draw.
- Separate holders from strugglers
- A lead held by Liverpool converted 87.8% of the time, against 61.8% for Sunderland. Club tendencies matter more in this market than the league average suggests.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common half-time/full-time result in the Premier League?
Home/Home, which landed in 28.1% of 7,980 matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26. That gives fair odds of 3.56 before any bookmaker margin.
How often does a Premier League home team leading at half-time go on to win?
Across 2,807 matches, the home side leading at the break won 79.9%. It drew 14.2% and lost 5.9%.
How rare is a Home/Away reversal in the Premier League?
It is the rarest of the nine results at 2.1% of matches, a fair price of 48.07. Away/Home is only slightly more common at 2.5%.
I'm Greta Janssens, based in Brussels, and I write the half-time/full-time tips at fixed-match.tips — focused on how teams start, how they finish, and what happens in between.
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