Championship Best Bets: Double Chance, Draw No Bet and Goal Lines
Twenty-one Championship seasons, every simple selection backed blind. Some hit often and some swung less, but none beat the price.
Compiled by Nurul AdiraValue & Sure Bet specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief7 min read
- double chance 1X hit rate70.7%
- best flat-stake return (the away side on the Asian line)−2.9%
- longest 1X losing run, in bets8
- league matches analysed11,588
People ask me for the one Championship selection they can lean on, and the honest place to start is the base rates. I took 11,588 league matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26 and backed every simple selection in every game: double chance, draw no bet, the Asian line and the goal lines. The question was which hit most often, which was priced closest to fair and which swung least.
The headline answer is a mixed one. Double chance 1X won 70.7% of the time, but its return was −5.1%, and the best result of the lot was the away side on the Asian line at −2.9%. This file sits alongside my best football bets page as the background check I run before backing anything in this division.
§ 1Every simple Championship selection lost money at flat stakes
The scorecard lines up twelve selections with bets, hit rate, return, longest losing run and profitable seasons. Read the return column first. Every priced selection is negative, ranging from the away side on the Asian line at −2.9% down to the away win at −6.7%. Home draw no bet and the plain home win both show −5.0%, and double chance 1X sits just behind at −5.1%.
The profitable-seasons column is the one that sobers me most. Double chance 1X finished ahead in 2 of 21 seasons, away draw no bet in 0 of 21, and even the best performer, the away Asian line, managed only 6 of 21. Over 1.5 and under 3.5 show hit rates only, because there were no prices to test them against.
| Selection | Bets | Won | Return | Longest losing run | Profitable seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1X | 11,588 | 70.7% | −5.1% | 8 | 2 of 21 |
| Double chance X2 | 11,588 | 56.6% | −5.5% | 10 | 1 of 21 |
| Home draw no bet | 11,588 | 43.4% | −5.0% | 8 | 2 of 21 |
| Away draw no bet | 11,588 | 29.3% | −6.4% | 10 | 0 of 21 |
| Home win | 11,588 | 43.4% | −5.0% | 14 | 4 of 21 |
| Away win | 11,588 | 29.3% | −6.7% | 23 | 3 of 21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 11,587 | 47.7% | −6.2% | 11 | 1 of 21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 11,587 | 52.3% | −5.7% | 10 | 1 of 21 |
| Home side, Asian line | 11,570 | 44.8% | −3.9% | 16 | 3 of 21 |
| Away side, Asian line | 11,570 | 45.1% | −2.9% | 11 | 6 of 21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 11,588 | 73.1% | n/a | 6 | n/a |
| Under 3.5 goals | 11,588 | 74.9% | n/a | 6 | n/a |
Over 1.5 and under 3.5 had no prices, so no return. Draw-no-bet and Asian-line refunds are not wins.
My takeaway is that hit rate and return are separate questions. The selections that win most often are not the ones that cost least, so I keep the two apart in my notes.
§ 2The market priced Championship outcomes almost exactly right
This chart sets the margin-free price against how often each outcome actually landed. The dots barely separate. Double chance 1X was priced at 70.6% and won 70.7%; X2 was priced at 56.7% and won 56.6%. Over 2.5 goals was priced at 47.8% and landed 47.7%, while under 2.5 was priced at 52.2% and landed 52.3%.
For a bettor, that tells you where the losses in the scorecard come from. The prices themselves were fair, so the shortfall is the bookmaker's margin, taken bet after bet. There is no hidden home bias or goal bias here waiting to be picked up by backing blind.
View the data: priced chance vs how often it won
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1X (11,588 bets) | 70.6% | 70.7% | ±0.8 |
| Double chance X2 (11,588 bets) | 56.7% | 56.6% | ±0.9 |
| Home win (11,588 bets) | 43.3% | 43.4% | ±0.9 |
| Away win (11,588 bets) | 29.4% | 29.3% | ±0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals (11,587 bets) | 47.8% | 47.7% | ±0.9 |
| Under 2.5 goals (11,587 bets) | 52.2% | 52.3% | ±0.9 |
The main caveat belongs here. Returns within a few points of zero can arise by chance over thousands of bets, so the away Asian line's edge over the rest is not proof of anything, and none of these selections is a betting system.
§ 3Short-priced lines kept losing runs to single figures
Swing matters as much as return when you are the one sitting through it. Over 1.5 and under 3.5 goals never lost more than 6 in a row across the whole sample, and double chance 1X and home draw no bet topped out at 8. At the other end, home win bets ran to 14 straight losers, the home Asian line to 16, and the away win to 23.
That gap is the real case for double chance in this division. You pay much the same margin as on the home win, but the worst stretch you sit through is far shorter.
View the data: longest losing run, selection by selection
| Most consecutive losing bets, all seasons in date order | |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 6 bets |
| Under 3.5 goals | 6 bets |
| Double chance 1X | 8 bets |
| Home draw no bet | 8 bets |
| Double chance X2 | 10 bets |
| Away draw no bet | 10 bets |
| Under 2.5 goals | 10 bets |
| Over 2.5 goals | 11 bets |
| Away side, Asian line | 11 bets |
| Home win | 14 bets |
| Home side, Asian line | 16 bets |
| Away win | 23 bets |
One caution from the method: losing runs grow with the number of bets. Every selection here has a similar count, which is why I am comfortable comparing them side by side.
§ 4High-hit lines held steady but still moved season to season
The line chart follows the three highest-hit selections across the 21 seasons. The 1X hit rate ranged from 66.3% in 2020/21 to 74.6% in 2009/10. Over 1.5 goals moved between 68.1% and 77.2%, and under 3.5 between 71.6% and 81.3%.
The 2020/21 season stands out on two lines at once: the 1X rate hit its low while under 3.5 hit its high. That fits a season where home teams struggled and matches stayed tight, and it is a reminder that a long average can hide a very different single campaign.
View the data: season by season: the three highest-hit lines
| Double chance 1X | Over 1.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 73.7% | 73.9% | 79.2% |
| 2006/07 | 70.5% | 71.7% | 73.4% |
| 2007/08 | 73.4% | 73.2% | 75.4% |
| 2008/09 | 72.6% | 71.7% | 75.9% |
| 2009/10 | 74.6% | 73.6% | 73.2% |
| 2010/11 | 71.4% | 77.2% | 72.1% |
| 2011/12 | 69.7% | 73.6% | 73.4% |
| 2012/13 | 70.8% | 74.8% | 72.2% |
| 2013/14 | 69.6% | 71.2% | 73.4% |
| 2014/15 | 69.9% | 74.1% | 71.9% |
| 2015/16 | 72.3% | 72.8% | 78.8% |
| 2016/17 | 71.0% | 73.9% | 74.6% |
| 2017/18 | 69.9% | 73.2% | 74.6% |
| 2018/19 | 72.8% | 75.0% | 71.9% |
| 2019/20 | 68.7% | 73.6% | 73.2% |
| 2020/21 | 66.3% | 68.1% | 81.3% |
| 2021/22 | 69.7% | 71.9% | 76.4% |
| 2022/23 | 68.1% | 70.1% | 77.5% |
| 2023/24 | 67.9% | 74.8% | 71.6% |
| 2024/25 | 74.2% | 70.9% | 78.4% |
| 2025/26 | 68.1% | 76.4% | 75.0% |
What I take from this is patience. One season can drift several points from the long-run figure, so I judge these lines across years, not months.
Almanac verdict
- Treat 1X as a comfort
- Double chance 1X won 70.7% and never lost more than 8 in a row, but it still returned −5.1%. Use it to steady swings, not as a source of profit.
- Avoid blind away wins
- The away win had the worst return at −6.7% and a losing run of 23. Back an away side only when your own price is clearly ahead of the market's.
- Compare to fair odds
- Over 1.5 goals has fair odds of 1.37 and under 3.5 has 1.33. Anything shorter than those numbers is paying you less than the base rate deserves.
Questions bettors ask
How often does double chance 1X win in the Championship?
Across 11,588 Championship matches, home or draw won 70.7% of the time. That ranks 9th of the 20 divisions covered by this series.
Is draw no bet profitable in the Championship?
Not when backed blind. Home draw no bet won 43.4%, was refunded 27.3% and returned −5.0%, while away draw no bet returned −6.4% and finished ahead in 0 of 21 seasons.
What are fair odds for over 1.5 goals in the Championship?
Over 1.5 goals landed in 73.1% of matches, which gives fair odds of 1.37. Its longest losing run was 6 bets, the shortest of any selection tested.
I'm Nurul Adira, based in Phuket, and I write the best-bet selections at fixed-match.tips — the highest-confidence calls of the week, framed honestly around value and staking rather than false guarantees.
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