Eredivisie Correct Scores: Why 0-0 Is So Rare in Dutch Football
The Eredivisie scores freely, so goalless draws are scarce. Here is where the scoreline mass actually sits, how far a Poisson model drifts, and which clubs run against the grain.
Compiled by Priya NadkarniCorrect Score Predictions specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief7 min read
- Eredivisie matches, 2005/06–2025/266,320
- of matches ended 0-05.0%
- fair decimal odds for 0-019.94
- 3+ goal wins, favourite under 1.4037.0%
The Eredivisie has a reputation for open football, and the scoreline record supports it. Across 6,320 completed matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26 the league averaged 3.08 goals per game, and just 5.0% ended 0-0. That was the second-lowest goalless rate of the 22 European divisions in the record.
My question here is narrower than that reputation. How rare is 0-0 once you account for all those goals, where does a simple model go wrong, and which clubs drift away from the league norm? The short answer is that 0-0 is rare because the league is high-scoring, not because anything odd happens to goalless games. The more useful edges sit in the margin of victory and in particular clubs.
§ 1Poisson gets 0-0 nearly right and overrates 2-1
I start every league file by building a plain Poisson model on the league's own averages, here 1.76 home goals and 1.32 away. This chart shows the actual rate of each common score minus the model's prediction. The model said 0-0 should land 4.6% of the time and the league delivered 5.0%, so the goalless draw is slightly more common than raw scoring rates imply. Nothing about Dutch football suppresses it beyond the sheer volume of goals.
The real misses are elsewhere. 2-1 was overrated by 1.9 points, at 7.5% actual against 9.4% predicted, and 1-2 also fell short of the model. Meanwhile 3-0 was the most underrated common score, at 5.1% against 4.2%. These figures feed into the reasoning on my correct score tips page.
View the data: eredivisie: actual score rate minus poisson model
| Actual minus model | |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | +0.4% |
| 1-0 | −0.6% |
| 2-1 | −1.9% |
| 2-0 | +0.3% |
| 1-2 | −1.0% |
| 2-2 | −0.4% |
| 3-1 | −0.1% |
| 0-1 | −0.7% |
| 3-0 | +0.9% |
| 0-0 | +0.4% |
The pattern is consistent. Narrow, back-and-forth results happen less than independence assumes, and comfortable home wins happen more. Once a stronger side leads in this league, it tends to keep scoring rather than hold on at one goal.
§ 2The grid spreads wide, with heavy home wins
The heatmap places every full-time score on a home-by-away grid. 1-1 is the single biggest cell at 11.1% (fair odds 9.00), but look at how flat the rest of the top of the table is. 2-0 took 7.4%, 2-1 7.5%, 2-2 5.8%, and the three-goal home scores of 3-0 and 3-1 came in at 5.1% and 5.4%.
The bottom-left corner shows how lopsided home dominance can get. Home wins by four or more to nil made up 4.5% of matches, against 1.7% for the away equivalent. For correct score backers, that corner is a real slice of the market rather than a novelty.
4+ groups four or more goals for that side.
View the data: eredivisie score grid: home goals × away goals
| Away 0 | Away 1 | Away 2 | Away 3 | Away 4+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home 0 | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Home 1 | 7.5% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| Home 2 | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Home 3 | 5.1% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Home 4+ | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
When probability is spread this thinly, no single scoreline deserves much confidence. I treat the grid as a menu of fair prices, then look for the bookmaker's quote that drifts furthest from it.
§ 3Short-priced favourites win big more often than narrowly
This stacked chart splits matches by the favourite's pre-match price and shows how each group was settled. Across the whole league, 31.8% of matches were decided by one goal, 23.4% by two, 21.5% by three or more, and 23.3% were drawn.
The price bands change that mix sharply. When the favourite was under 1.40, across 1,338 matches, 37.0% were won by three or more goals and only 15.0% were drawn. At the other end, with the favourite at 2.50 and up, 31.1% were drawn and 33.7% were won by a single goal.
View the data: eredivisie winning margins by favourite price
| Draw | Won by 1 | Won by 2 | Won by 3+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fav. Under 1.40 · 1,338 | 15.0% | 23.3% | 24.7% | 37.0% |
| Fav. 1.40–1.69 · 1,450 | 24.1% | 32.4% | 23.4% | 20.1% |
| Fav. 1.70–1.99 · 1,259 | 24.7% | 32.8% | 24.2% | 18.3% |
| Fav. 2.00–2.49 · 1,926 | 26.2% | 36.2% | 22.6% | 14.9% |
| Fav. 2.50 and up · 347 | 31.1% | 33.7% | 19.6% | 15.6% |
| All matches · 6,320 | 23.3% | 31.8% | 23.4% | 21.5% |
For me this is the most practical chart in the file. A heavy Dutch favourite is more likely to win by three or more than by one, which argues for spreading stakes across 3-0, 3-1 and 4-0 rather than defaulting to 1-0 or 2-1.
§ 4Cambuur and Willem II draw blanks, PSV rarely
The club table ranks the 24 sides with at least 150 Eredivisie matches by 0-0 rate, showing the top eight and bottom three. Cambuur led at 6.5% of 170 matches, followed by Willem II at 6.2% across 532 and NAC Breda at 6.1% across 472. Twente stand out for draws more broadly, with 1-1 their most common score at 13.5%.
At the bottom, PSV Eindhoven drew 0-0 in just 3.0% of 704 matches, and their most common score was a 2-0 win at 10.1%. Ajax followed the same profile, at 3.6% and a 2-0 win at 11.8%.
| Club | Matches | 0-0 | 1-1 | Most common score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 170 | 6.5% | 9.4% | Lost 1-2 (12.4%) |
| Willem II | 532 | 6.2% | 8.6% | Lost 0-1 (10.5%) |
| NAC Breda | 472 | 6.1% | 11.2% | Drew 1-1 (11.2%) |
| Fortuna Sittard | 264 | 6.1% | 8.7% | Lost 1-2 (9.1%) |
| Utrecht | 701 | 5.8% | 12.4% | Drew 1-1 (12.4%) |
| Vitesse | 634 | 5.8% | 9.5% | Drew 1-1 (9.5%) |
| Twente | 669 | 5.8% | 13.5% | Drew 1-1 (13.5%) |
| Roda JC | 404 | 5.7% | 11.1% | Drew 1-1 (11.1%) |
| RKC Waalwijk | 400 | 3.8% | 12.0% | Drew 1-1 (12.0%) |
| Ajax | 701 | 3.6% | 8.0% | Won 2-0 (11.8%) |
| PSV Eindhoven | 704 | 3.0% | 8.4% | Won 2-0 (10.1%) |
Scores read from the club's side (its goals first).
One caution applies to everything here. These are historical frequencies across changing squads, promotions and relegations, so they are base rates rather than forecasts, and bookmaker margins on correct score usually push quoted odds well below the fair figures.
Almanac verdict
- Demand more than 19.94
- The league's 0-0 rate of 5.0% implies fair odds of 19.94. A quote below that offers no value before you even account for the bookmaker's margin.
- Fade 2-1 by default
- 2-1 landed 7.5% of the time against a model figure of 9.4%. It is the scoreline most often overpriced by intuition and by simple models alike.
- Go wider with heavy favourites
- With the favourite under 1.40, 37.0% of matches were won by three or more goals. Cover three-goal home scores before narrow ones.
Questions bettors ask
How often does an Eredivisie match end 0-0?
In 6,320 matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26, 5.0% finished 0-0. That makes fair odds of 19.94 and the second-lowest rate of 22 European divisions in the record.
What is the most common correct score in the Eredivisie?
1-1 is the most common, at 11.1% of matches, which equates to fair odds of 9.00. 2-1 at 7.5% and 2-0 at 7.4% follow closely.
Which Eredivisie club draws 0-0 the most?
Among clubs with at least 150 matches, Cambuur had the highest 0-0 rate at 6.5% of 170 games. Willem II were next at 6.2%, while PSV Eindhoven were lowest at 3.0%.
I'm Priya Nadkarni, based in San Diego, and I write the correct score predictions at fixed-match.tips — built on goal distributions and game state, not on guessing a tidy final number.
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