League Two 1X2 Stats: Are Away Sides the Underrated Pick?
Twenty-one seasons of League Two result prices show the away side is the one selection the market has tended to underrate, though only by a whisker.
Compiled by Talia RosenWin-Draw-Win (1X2) specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- League Two away win rate31.0%
- Return on every away side, best price+2.1%
- Return on every home side, best price−3.2%
- Home win rate41.9%
League Two has a reputation as a division where the home side does the heavy lifting, all muddy pitches and long coach trips. Across 11,470 matches from 2005/06–2025/26, home sides won 41.9%, draws landed 27.1% and away sides won 31.0%. The question I care about is not how often each outcome happens. It is whether the price on each one was right.
The headline answer is that the away side was the only broad selection that finished in profit, and only at the best price. Backing every away team returned +2.1%, while every home side returned −3.2% on the same terms. That is a thin edge, not a revolution. My football 1X2 tips page is where I apply this match by match, and this file explains the base layer underneath it.
§ 1Away sides were the only profitable blanket selection
This chart shows what a flat one-unit stake on every selection would have returned, at a major bookmaker's main price and at the best price across the market. At the main price everything lost. Every home side returned −7.1%, every draw −6.5% and every away side −3.2%, so the away side lost least by a clear distance.
Switch to the best price and the away side tips into positive territory at +2.1%, with underdogs as a group at +0.9%. Favourites still returned −1.7% and home sides −3.2%. The ordering matters more to me than the exact figures: the market charged more of its margin to home backers than to away backers.
View the data: flat-stake returns on each 1x2 selection
| Main price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Every home side | −7.1% | −3.2% |
| Every draw | −6.5% | −3.1% |
| Every away side | −3.2% | +2.1% |
| Every favourite | −5.6% | −1.7% |
| Every underdog | −4.5% | +0.9% |
Here is the caveat I would put on all of this. These are records of what happened, and an edge of a point or two can arise by chance. Best-price returns also assume you always got the top number, which in practice you rarely will.
§ 2The away undervaluation was mostly an older-era story
Here the margin-free price for each outcome sits next to how often it landed, split into two eras. In 2005/06–2014/15 away wins were priced at 29.3% and landed 30.7%, while home wins were priced at 43.2% and landed 41.7%. That is the gap that funded the away returns.
In 2015/16–2025/26 the picture tightened. Away wins were priced at 31.0% and landed 31.2%, and home wins were priced at 41.8% and landed 42.1%. Both gaps now sit comfortably inside the error bars.
View the data: priced vs actual: home, draw and away
| Priced | Actually happened | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win, 2005/06–2014/15 (5,519 matches) | 43.2% | 41.7% | ±1.3 |
| Home win, 2015/16–2025/26 (5,951 matches) | 41.8% | 42.1% | ±1.3 |
| Draw, 2005/06–2014/15 (5,519 matches) | 27.5% | 27.6% | ±1.2 |
| Draw, 2015/16–2025/26 (5,951 matches) | 27.3% | 26.8% | ±1.1 |
| Away win, 2005/06–2014/15 (5,519 matches) | 29.3% | 30.7% | ±1.2 |
| Away win, 2015/16–2025/26 (5,951 matches) | 31.0% | 31.2% | ±1.2 |
My reading is that the market learned. The draw was priced almost perfectly in the first era, at 27.5% against 27.6%, and ran slightly short in the second, at 27.3% against 26.8%. So the draw is not a hidden edge here, and the away lean has largely been corrected.
§ 3Mid-priced underdogs beat their odds more than short ones
This breaks underdogs into odds bands and compares the margin-free chance with the actual win rate. The short underdogs, priced under 3.00, won 32.4% of 2,836 matches against a priced 33.6%, so they slightly underperformed. The 3.00–3.99 band won 29.1% against 28.2%, and the 4.00–4.99 band won 23.3% against 21.8%.
Further out the signal fades. Underdogs at 5.00–6.99 won 16.6% against 17.2%, and the 7.00+ group won 12.3% of only 227 matches against 11.9%, with an error range wide enough to swallow that difference.
View the data: underdogs by price: priced vs actual win rate
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.00 (2,836 matches) | 33.6% | 32.4% | ±1.7 |
| 3.00–3.99 (5,050 matches) | 28.2% | 29.1% | ±1.3 |
| 4.00–4.99 (2,060 matches) | 21.8% | 23.3% | ±1.8 |
| 5.00–6.99 (1,064 matches) | 17.2% | 16.6% | ±2.2 |
| 7.00+ (227 matches) | 11.9% | 12.3% | ±4.3 |
If there is a sweet spot in League Two, it is the moderate outsider in the 3.00 to 4.99 region rather than the near-coin-flip underdog or the long shot.
§ 4Away form splits clubs far more than the average suggests
The club table covers 2016/17–2025/26 for sides with 100+ League Two matches. Salford won 41.0% of 156 away games, the best record, with Exeter next at 39.6%. Swindon managed 37.6% across 178, and Mansfield paired a 35.8% away win rate with 33.0% draws, which makes them a natural double chance candidate on the road.
At the other end, Crawley Town won 23.8% of 202 away games and lost 50.5%. Scunthorpe won only 17.2% of 64 and lost 60.9%, and Hartlepool and Yeovil were similarly poor.
| Club | Away games | Won | Drawn | Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford | 156 | 41.0% | 20.5% | 38.5% |
| Exeter | 134 | 39.6% | 29.1% | 31.3% |
| Northampton | 87 | 39.1% | 29.9% | 31.0% |
| Doncaster | 92 | 38.0% | 22.8% | 39.1% |
| MK Dons | 92 | 38.0% | 22.8% | 39.1% |
| Swindon | 178 | 37.6% | 24.7% | 37.6% |
| Forest Green | 134 | 35.8% | 29.1% | 35.1% |
| Mansfield | 179 | 35.8% | 33.0% | 31.3% |
| Crawley Town | 202 | 23.8% | 25.7% | 50.5% |
| Sutton | 69 | 23.2% | 27.5% | 49.3% |
| Gillingham | 92 | 22.8% | 29.3% | 47.8% |
| Hartlepool | 69 | 18.8% | 23.2% | 58.0% |
| Yeovil | 69 | 17.4% | 29.0% | 53.6% |
| Scunthorpe | 64 | 17.2% | 21.9% | 60.9% |
Clubs move between divisions constantly, so several of these samples are short and the table describes past squads, not current ones. I treat it as a prompt to check whether a price reflects a side's travelling record, not as a rating in its own right.
Almanac verdict
- Price the away side fairly
- Away teams won 31.0% of League Two matches, and the market has priced them close to that since 2015/16. Start from that base rate and only back the away side when your own estimate clears the posted price.
- Shop for the price
- Every away side went from −3.2% at the main price to +2.1% at the best price. In this division the line you take decides whether you profit at all.
- Target moderate outsiders
- Underdogs at 4.00–4.99 won 23.3% against a priced 21.8%. Give that band a closer look before reaching for the shortest or longest outsiders.
Questions bettors ask
How often do away teams win in League Two?
Away sides won 31.0% of 11,470 League Two matches from 2005/06–2025/26. Home sides won 41.9% and 27.1% ended level.
Is backing away teams in League Two profitable?
Historically it returned +2.1% at the best price but −3.2% at the main price. The edge is small, came mostly from the older era and could reflect chance.
Which League Two club has the best away record?
Salford won 41.0% of 156 away matches in 2016/17–2025/26, with Exeter next at 39.6%. Scunthorpe were worst at 17.2% of 64.
I'm Talia Rosen, based in Las Vegas, and I write the win-draw-win tips at fixed-match.tips — treating the match-result market as a question of price against probability, never of backing the bigger badge.
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