Ligue 1 Best Bets: Draw No Bet vs Asian Line vs Double Chance
Draw no bet, double chance or the Asian line? Across 7,655 Ligue 1 matches, all three cost money, but they cost it in very different ways.
Compiled by Nurul AdiraValue & Sure Bet specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- home draw no bet flat-stake return−5.9%
- home side on the main Asian line−4.2%
- double chance 1X return−6.0%
- of home draw no bet bets refunded27.3%
When a friend asks me how to back a Ligue 1 home side without taking the full risk of the 1X2, three options come up every time: draw no bet, double chance 1X and the main Asian line. This study puts all three on the same matches across 7,655 league games and asks which one gives the most reliable cover, and which has been priced closest to fair.
The headline is plain. None of them returned a profit at a major bookmaker's price. The home side on the main Asian line lost least at −4.2%, while home draw no bet at −5.9% and double chance 1X at −6.0% did no better than simply backing the home win. Every pick on my best football bets page starts from findings like these. The cover changes how the losses arrive far more than how large they are.
§ 1Three covers, near-identical losses, very different losing runs
This table backs the home side four ways on the same fixtures. Double chance 1X won 71.7% of the time and home draw no bet refunded 27.3% of stakes, yet both finished almost exactly where the plain home win did. The extra safety is real, but it is paid for in the price.
Where the covers really differ is the ride. The plain home win had a longest losing run of 12, the Asian line 11, while draw no bet and double chance topped out at 7. All four selections have similar bet counts, so that comparison is fair.
| Selection | Bets | Won | Refunded | Return | Longest losing run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 7,655 | 44.5% | 0.0% | −6.0% | 12 |
| Home draw no bet | 7,655 | 44.5% | 27.3% | −5.9% | 7 |
| Double chance 1X | 7,655 | 71.7% | 0.0% | −6.0% | 7 |
| Home side, Asian line | 7,640 | 44.5% | 9.3% | −4.2% | 11 |
Asian line: full and half wins count as won, half losses as lost.
What I take from it: if you choose draw no bet or double chance, choose it for a calmer bankroll, not for a better return. The Asian line is the only cover that clawed back a little of the margin.
§ 2Draw no bet pricing holds up best at the short end
Here I strip out the draws and compare the home win share the price implied with the share that actually happened, split by home odds. With the home side priced under 1.50, home teams won 89.7% of non-drawn matches against 87.7% priced, across 691 non-draws, and draw no bet returned −3.8% in that band.
The 2.00–2.49 band ran even further ahead of its price, 64.4% won against 61.2% priced over 1,530 non-draws. Between 1.50 and 1.99 the priced and actual shares were almost level.
View the data: home draw no bet: priced vs won
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home <1.50 (691 non-draws) | 87.7% | 89.7% | ±2.3 |
| Home 1.50–1.99 (1,499 non-draws) | 74.3% | 74.1% | ±2.2 |
| Home 2.00–2.49 (1,530 non-draws) | 61.2% | 64.4% | ±2.4 |
| Home 2.50–3.49 (1,085 non-draws) | 47.6% | 45.8% | ±3 |
| Home 3.50+ (764 non-draws) | 27.1% | 25.1% | ±3.1 |
The long end is the warning. At 3.50+, home sides won 25.1% of non-draws against 27.1% priced, and draw no bet returned −10.2%. I keep well away from draw no bet on outsiders; the refund doesn't rescue a price that was too short in the first place.
§ 3Level ball refunds often, big handicaps rarely refund
This chart shows how the home side's Asian bets actually settled. At level ball the home side won 36.1%, was refunded 31.1% and lost 32.8%, which makes it behave much like draw no bet. At 'Home gives 1.5+' refunds almost vanish: won 49.2%, refunded 5.0%, lost 45.8%.
The quarter and half lines around 0.25–0.5 never refund at all, so every bet there either wins or loses something. Over all lines, 9.3% of home Asian bets came back as refunds.
View the data: how the home side settles on the asian line
| Won | Refunded | Lost | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home gives 1.5+ | 49.2% | 5.0% | 45.8% |
| Home gives 0.75–1.25 | 43.8% | 11.1% | 45.2% |
| Home gives 0.25–0.5 | 46.4% | 0.0% | 53.6% |
| Level ball (0) | 36.1% | 31.1% | 32.8% |
| Home receives 0.25+ | 49.2% | 3.3% | 47.5% |
For a bettor, the line you pick sets the volatility before the match kicks off. Know which shape of outcome you are buying.
§ 4The away side priced closer to fair on the Asian line
Splitting the main line by handicap shows where the margin bit hardest. Across all 7,640 matches the home side returned −4.2% and the away side −2.2%. The strongest group was 'Home receives 0.25+', where the away side returned +0.8% over 1,394 matches, while the home side in that same group lost heavily.
The one spot where backing the home side came close to break-even was 'Home gives 1.5+', at −0.5% against −6.4% for the away side, though that is only 439 matches. At level ball the two sides were almost even, −3.5% and −3.2%.
Matches: Home gives 1.5+ 439, Home gives 0.75–1.25 1,588, Home gives 0.25–0.5 2,726, Level ball (0) 1,493, Home receives 0.25+ 1,394.
View the data: asian main line: home side or away side?
| Home side | Away side | |
|---|---|---|
| Home gives 1.5+ | −0.5% | −6.4% |
| Home gives 0.75–1.25 | −6.6% | +0.8% |
| Home gives 0.25–0.5 | −2.5% | −4.2% |
| Level ball (0) | −3.5% | −3.2% |
| Home receives 0.25+ | −6.7% | +0.8% |
| All lines | −4.2% | −2.2% |
My honest caveat: returns this close to zero can appear by chance over a few thousand bets, and the prices come from one bookmaker captured at varying times. I treat these as leads to test, not a system.
Almanac verdict
- Choose cover for bankroll
- Draw no bet and double chance cut the longest losing run to 7 from 12 on the home win, but returned −5.9% and −6.0%. Use them to smooth swings, not to chase value.
- Skip outsider draw no bet
- With the home side at 3.50+, home teams won 25.1% of non-draws against 27.1% priced and draw no bet returned −10.2%. Look elsewhere when the home side is a long price.
- Shop the Asian line
- The main Asian line lost least overall at −4.2% for the home side and −2.2% for the away side. When the home side receives 0.25+, the away side returned +0.8%, so check that angle first.
Questions bettors ask
Is draw no bet better than double chance in Ligue 1?
On return they were almost identical: home draw no bet returned −5.9% and double chance 1X −6.0% across 7,655 matches. Both had a longest losing run of 7, so the choice comes down to how you prefer to be paid and refunded.
How often is a home draw no bet refunded in Ligue 1?
Across the study, 27.3% of home draw no bet bets were refunded because the match was drawn. A further 44.5% won.
Which Ligue 1 Asian handicap line has done best?
The strongest group was 'Home receives 0.25+', where the away side returned +0.8% over 1,394 matches. That margin is small enough to arise by chance, so I treat it as a starting point rather than a rule.
I'm Nurul Adira, based in Phuket, and I write the best-bet selections at fixed-match.tips — the highest-confidence calls of the week, framed honestly around value and staking rather than false guarantees.
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