Serie A Best Bets: Most Reliable Home Favourites, Club by Club
Which Serie A hosts have earned their short prices, and which way of backing the home side has cost bettors the least over the same matches?
Compiled by Nurul AdiraValue & Sure Bet specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Roma home win rate as favourite74.2%
- clubs with 40+ home matches as favourite17
- home draw no bet flat-stake return−7.7%
- longest home draw no bet losing run7
Serie A has a reputation for tight, cagey home games, and bettors often reach for draw no bet or double chance to soften that. I wanted to know two things: which clubs have actually delivered when priced as home favourites, and which form of home cover holds up best. This study is the groundwork behind my top football picks page whenever an Italian home favourite comes up.
The headline answer: Roma has been the most reliable home favourite, winning 74.2% of matches, with Juventus and Inter close behind. Across all 7,974 matches, every way of backing the home side lost money at flat stakes. The home Asian line lost least at −4.9%, and the plain home win lost most at −8.7%.
§ 1Roma and Juventus lead Serie A's home favourites
The table lists the top eight of the 17 clubs that started at least 40 home matches priced under 2.00, which comes to 3,208 matches in all. Roma won 74.2% of 299 at median odds of 1.45 and returned +9.6%, with a longest losing run of 6. Juventus won 73.8% of 332 and Inter 70.7% of 334, but at shorter median prices, so the profit was thinner or gone.
| Club | Matches | Median odds | Won | Return | Longest losing run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 299 | 1.45 | 74.2% | +9.6% | 6 |
| Juventus | 332 | 1.36 | 73.8% | +1.8% | 4 |
| Inter | 334 | 1.38 | 70.7% | −1.7% | 5 |
| Milan | 304 | 1.43 | 66.8% | −3.9% | 6 |
| Napoli | 280 | 1.43 | 66.1% | −5.9% | 5 |
| Lazio | 245 | 1.60 | 65.3% | +1.3% | 4 |
| Fiorentina | 247 | 1.57 | 65.2% | +2.4% | 5 |
| Palermo | 82 | 1.66 | 64.6% | +7.7% | 10 |
17 clubs qualified; the top 8 by win rate are shown.
Of the eight clubs shown, 5 turned a profit backing every home favourite match. I read Palermo carefully, though. Their +7.7% comes from only 82 matches, and they still suffered a losing run of 10. At the other end, Parma won just 48.1% of 54 home matches as favourite, a reminder that a short price on its own tells you nothing about the club wearing it.
§ 2The Asian line is the cheapest way to back hosts
Here the same matches are backed four different ways. Home draw no bet won 44.2% and refunded 26.4%, double chance 1X won 70.7%, and the home side on the Asian line won in full or half 43.9%. Returns ran from −8.7% for the home win to −4.9% on the Asian line.
| Selection | Bets | Won | Refunded | Return | Longest losing run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 7,974 | 44.2% | 0.0% | −8.7% | 12 |
| Home draw no bet | 7,974 | 44.2% | 26.4% | −7.7% | 7 |
| Double chance 1X | 7,974 | 70.7% | 0.0% | −6.6% | 7 |
| Home side, Asian line | 7,970 | 43.9% | 10.0% | −4.9% | 12 |
Asian line: full and half wins count as won, half losses as lost.
The cover changes the ride more than the result. Draw no bet and double chance both cut the longest losing run to 7, against 12 for the home win and the Asian line. None of these makes money on its own, and returns within a few points of zero can appear by chance over a few thousand bets, so I treat the ranking as a guide to cost rather than a system.
§ 3Short-priced hosts beat their price; long shots fall short
This chart compares how often the home side was priced to win non-drawn matches with how often it actually did, by price band. Hosts under 1.50 won 90.5% against 88.2% priced, and home draw no bet in that band returned −3.6%. Between 2.00–2.49 they won 64.2% against 61.0% priced.
View the data: home draw no bet: priced vs won
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home <1.50 (1,058 non-draws) | 88.2% | 90.5% | ±1.8 |
| Home 1.50–1.99 (1,425 non-draws) | 74.9% | 77.2% | ±2.2 |
| Home 2.00–2.49 (1,176 non-draws) | 61.0% | 64.2% | ±2.7 |
| Home 2.50–3.49 (1,047 non-draws) | 47.0% | 45.0% | ±3 |
| Home 3.50+ (1,159 non-draws) | 25.9% | 21.1% | ±2.3 |
The picture flips at the long end. Home sides at 3.50+ won 21.1% of non-drawn matches against 25.9% priced, and draw no bet there returned −22.2%. For me that is the clearest lesson in the study: covering the draw on an outsider at home has been a poor trade in Serie A.
§ 4Away side holds up best when the home side receives
Over 7,970 Asian line matches the home side returned −4.9% and the away side −1.6%. Split by handicap, the strongest group was home receives 0.25+, where the away side returned +4.0% across 1,956 matches while the home side returned −9.6%.
Matches: Home gives 1.5+ 783, Home gives 0.75–1.25 1,667, Home gives 0.25–0.5 2,100, Level ball (0) 1,464, Home receives 0.25+ 1,956.
View the data: asian main line: home side or away side?
| Home side | Away side | |
|---|---|---|
| Home gives 1.5+ | −9.2% | +2.8% |
| Home gives 0.75–1.25 | −3.1% | −2.3% |
| Home gives 0.25–0.5 | −2.0% | −4.3% |
| Level ball (0) | −2.6% | −6.5% |
| Home receives 0.25+ | −9.6% | +4.0% |
| All lines | −4.9% | −1.6% |
At home gives 1.5+, the home side won 45.2%, was refunded 4.3% and lost 50.4%, returning −9.2% against +2.8% for the away side. Level ball reverses the pattern: the home side returned −2.6% and the away side −6.5%. Heavy home handicaps and home underdogs both lean towards the visitors; level games lean slightly towards the hosts.
Almanac verdict
- Back the club, not price
- Roma won 74.2% as home favourite and Parma only 48.1%, so check the club's record before trusting a short price.
- Skip draw cover on outsiders
- Home draw no bet at 3.50+ returned −22.2%, against −3.6% under 1.50. Covering the draw pays only when the home side is already well fancied.
- Favour visitors on big lines
- When the home side gives 1.5+ the away side returned +2.8%, and when the home side receives 0.25+ the away side returned +4.0%.
Questions bettors ask
Which Serie A club is the most reliable home favourite?
Roma, winning 74.2% of 299 home matches as favourite at median odds of 1.45, a flat-stake return of +9.6%. Juventus won 73.8% of 332 and Inter 70.7% of 334.
Is draw no bet better than a straight home win in Serie A?
Slightly. Home draw no bet returned −7.7% against −8.7% for the home win, and its longest losing run was 7 rather than 12.
Which home bet has lost least in Serie A?
The home side on the main Asian line, at −4.9% over 7,970 matches. Double chance 1X returned −6.6% while winning 70.7% of the time.
I'm Nurul Adira, based in Phuket, and I write the best-bet selections at fixed-match.tips — the highest-confidence calls of the week, framed honestly around value and staking rather than false guarantees.
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