Ligue 1 Over 2.5 Stats: From Low-Scoring League to Coin Flip
Ligue 1 shed its low-scoring reputation and became a near coin flip on the 2.5 line. The prices mostly followed, with one profitable-looking exception that faded.
Compiled by Saoirse MullanOver/Under Goals specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Ligue 1 over 2.5, 2005/06–2011/1241.1%
- Ligue 1 over 2.5, 2019/20–2025/2652.9%
- Peak season, 2022/2356.3%
- Flat-stake return, every over 2.5−6.3%
Ligue 1 spent years as the division you looked at when you wanted goals to stay scarce. Across 7,656 league matches the average sits at 2.54 goals per game, with over 2.5 landing in 46.7%. That long-run figure hides a steady climb. Every selection on my today's over 2.5 tips page starts from the base rate of the era it sits in, not from an old reputation.
The answer to the headline question is clear. Over 2.5 landed in 41.1% of matches in 2005/06–2011/12 and in 52.9% in 2019/20–2025/26, so the league has crossed from under-leaning to slightly over-leaning. Did the market keep pace? Broadly, yes. Backing every over still returned −6.3% overall, and the one stretch where overs came close to breaking even did not last.
§ 1Ligue 1 over 2.5 climbed season by season
The line chart tracks the share of matches clearing 2.5 and 3.5 goals in each season. The low point is the first season in the sample, 2005/06, at 34.2%. The peak came in 2022/23 at 56.3%, and the latest complete season, 2025/26, finished at 52.6% across 306 matches.
The over 3.5 line rises alongside it, which tells me this is not just a few extra three-goal games. Over 3.5 peaked at 35.1% in 2024/25 and held at 32.7% in 2025/26. When the higher line moves with the lower one, the whole distribution of goals has shifted, not just its middle.
View the data: ligue 1 goals lines season by season
| Over 2.5 actual | Over 3.5 | |
|---|---|---|
| 05/06 | 34.2% | 18.2% |
| 06/07 | 42.1% | 20.3% |
| 07/08 | 42.1% | 19.2% |
| 08/09 | 40.5% | 19.7% |
| 09/10 | 43.2% | 23.9% |
| 10/11 | 41.6% | 21.3% |
| 11/12 | 44.2% | 23.7% |
| 12/13 | 46.1% | 28.2% |
| 13/14 | 43.7% | 23.4% |
| 14/15 | 44.7% | 23.9% |
| 15/16 | 44.2% | 25.0% |
| 16/17 | 48.7% | 26.6% |
| 17/18 | 51.8% | 27.9% |
| 18/19 | 48.2% | 27.4% |
| 19/20 | 47.3% | 25.4% |
| 20/21 | 54.2% | 30.5% |
| 21/22 | 50.3% | 31.8% |
| 22/23 | 56.3% | 29.2% |
| 23/24 | 52.9% | 28.8% |
| 24/25 | 55.4% | 35.1% |
| 25/26 | 52.6% | 32.7% |
What I take from this is that any Ligue 1 over/under figure quoted from a long average is out of date. The recent seasons sit well above the 46.7% sample-wide rate, and that is the number a bettor should be anchoring to.
§ 2Goalless grinds gave way to four-goal games
The stacked bars split each seven-season era by total goals. In 2005/06–2011/12, across 2,660 matches, 31.3% of games had 0-1 goals and only 20.9% had four or more. By 2019/20–2025/26, across 2,336 matches, those shares had moved to 23.5% and 30.6%. The two extremes have roughly swapped places.
The middle tells a quieter story. Three-goal games only edged up, from 20.2% to 22.3%, so the gain for overs has come mostly from the open, end-to-end matches at the top of the range.
View the data: how ligue 1 scorelines shifted by era
| 0-1 goals | 2 goals | 3 goals | 4+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06–2011/12 | 31.3% | 27.6% | 20.2% | 20.9% |
| 2012/13–2018/19 | 27.4% | 25.9% | 20.7% | 26.1% |
| 2019/20–2025/26 | 23.5% | 23.6% | 22.3% | 30.6% |
§ 3Over returns improved but the market mostly caught up
This chart shows flat-stake returns for backing every over and every under in three-season stretches, using a major bookmaker's prices. Early on, overs were clearly the poorer side to back, losing far more than unders in the first stretch. As goals rose, over returns improved steadily, peaking in 20/21–22/23 at −0.9%, when over 2.5 landed 53.6% against a priced 51.5%. Unders had one of their worst runs in that same stretch.
Then the gap closed. In 23/24–25/26 overs slipped back to a loss of several points while unders returned −4.9%, even with the over 2.5 rate at 53.7% across 917 matches. The prices had absorbed the new scoring level.
View the data: ligue 1 over vs under returns by era
| Back over 2.5 | Back under 2.5 | |
|---|---|---|
| 05/06–07/08 | −12.3% | −5.2% |
| 08/09–10/11 | −8.5% | −5.8% |
| 11/12–13/14 | −6.8% | −5.7% |
| 14/15–16/17 | −5.1% | −7.5% |
| 17/18–19/20 | −4.6% | −8.3% |
| 20/21–22/23 | −0.9% | −9.1% |
| 23/24–25/26 | −5.2% | −4.9% |
| All seasons | −6.3% | −6.7% |
My caveat applies most here: returns sitting a few points either side of zero can be produced by ordinary variance, so these figures describe history rather than form a betting system. Across all seasons, −6.3% for overs against −6.7% for unders is essentially the bookmaker's margin showing through on both sides.
§ 4Paris Saint-Germain and Angers sit at opposite extremes
The club bars cover every match involving each side from 2021/22 to 2025/26, against a league rate of 53.5% in those seasons. Paris Saint-Germain matches cleared 2.5 goals most often, 66.7% of 177, followed by Monaco at 61.6% and Rennes at 60.1%. At the other end, Angers matches went over just 44.4% of 144, with Nantes at 44.9%.
Club reputation and goal output do not always line up. Lille, a side often near the top of the table, sit below the league rate at 48.3%, as do Nice at 47.2%. Tempo and chance quality drive these numbers, not prestige.
League rate in the same seasons: 53.5%. Min 100 matches; 20 clubs qualified, top and bottom 7 shown.
View the data: ligue 1 over 2.5 rate by club
| Matches involving each club, 2021/22-2025/26; matches in brackets | |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain (177) | 66.7% |
| Monaco (177) | 61.6% |
| Rennes (178) | 60.1% |
| Lyon (178) | 59.6% |
| Marseille (178) | 56.7% |
| Toulouse (140) | 55.7% |
| Strasbourg (178) | 55.6% |
| Clermont (110) | 49.1% |
| Lille (178) | 48.3% |
| Le Havre (102) | 48.0% |
| Nice (178) | 47.2% |
| Reims (144) | 46.5% |
| Nantes (178) | 44.9% |
| Angers (144) | 44.4% |
For a bettor, the spread between the top and bottom of this list is wider than the move between whole eras. A fixture's two clubs will usually tell you more than the league average does, as long as the bookmaker has not already priced them in.
Almanac verdict
- Anchor to recent seasons
- Use the 2019/20–2025/26 rate of 52.9% as your baseline, not the 46.7% sample-wide figure. The older number belongs to a different league.
- Expect prices to follow
- The 20/21–22/23 over return of −0.9% faded noticeably in the next stretch. Treat any apparent edge from a scoring trend as temporary unless the prices lag again.
- Start from the clubs
- With Paris Saint-Germain at 66.7% and Angers at 44.4%, the teams involved matter more than the league line. Check whether the price reflects that spread before backing either side.
Questions bettors ask
What percentage of Ligue 1 matches go over 2.5 goals?
Across 7,656 matches from 2005/06-2025/26 the figure is 46.7%. In the most recent era, 2019/20–2025/26, it rose to 52.9%, and 2025/26 finished at 52.6%.
Is Ligue 1 still a low-scoring league?
Not on recent evidence. Matches with four or more goals made up 30.6% of games in 2019/20–2025/26, against 20.9% in 2005/06–2011/12, and the over 2.5 rate peaked at 56.3% in 2022/23.
Has backing over 2.5 in Ligue 1 been profitable?
Not over the full sample: flat stakes on every over 2.5 returned −6.3%, and every under returned −6.7%. The closest overs came was −0.9% in 20/21–22/23, which did not carry into the following seasons.
I'm Saoirse Mullan, based in Dublin, and I write the over/under goals tips at fixed-match.tips — reading tempo, chance quality and match context rather than the size of the names involved.
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