National League Win-Draw-Win Stats: Results, Fair Odds, Returns
Fifteen seasons of National League results, grouped by price, show where the 1X2 market gets the split right and where away sides have quietly held their value.
Compiled by Talia RosenWin-Draw-Win (1X2) specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- National League home win rate42.8%
- Draw rate25.1%
- Away win rate32.1%
- Return on every away side, best price+1.5%
The National League is where a lot of bettors assume home advantage does the heavy lifting. Across 7,635 matches from 2011/12 to 2025/26, the split was 42.8% home wins, 25.1% draws and 32.1% away wins. That is a real home edge, but it is not as large as many people expect, and the away share is substantial.
The headline for anyone pricing this division is that away sides deserve more respect than they usually get. Backing every away side at the best price returned +1.5%, the only one of the three basic selections to finish above zero. If you want the daily angle on how I turn base rates like these into selections, my win-draw-win betting tips page is where that work lives. This file is the reference behind it.
§ 1Home wins hold steady while the draw swings
This chart tracks each result's share season by season. The home line is the most stable of the three. It peaked at 48.4% in 2013/14 and bottomed at 39.7% in 2017/18, and outside those two seasons it has sat in a fairly narrow band. The draw is the restless line, running from 22.1% in 2020/21 up to 29.5% in 2017/18.
Look at 2017/18 closely. The weakest home season was also the strongest draw season, so the points home sides lost went mostly into stalemates rather than away wins. In 2020/21 the pattern ran the other way: few draws and an away high of 35.3%.
View the data: national league: home, draw and away by season
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011/12 | 41.5% | 26.0% | 32.6% |
| 2012/13 | 41.5% | 25.4% | 33.2% |
| 2013/14 | 48.4% | 23.7% | 27.9% |
| 2014/15 | 43.1% | 25.0% | 31.9% |
| 2015/16 | 42.6% | 25.6% | 31.8% |
| 2016/17 | 43.8% | 23.0% | 33.2% |
| 2017/18 | 39.7% | 29.5% | 30.8% |
| 2018/19 | 41.7% | 25.9% | 32.4% |
| 2019/20 | 40.6% | 27.5% | 31.9% |
| 2020/21 | 42.6% | 22.1% | 35.3% |
| 2021/22 | 44.1% | 22.9% | 33.0% |
| 2022/23 | 44.2% | 25.7% | 30.1% |
| 2023/24 | 42.1% | 25.6% | 32.3% |
| 2024/25 | 42.2% | 27.2% | 30.6% |
| 2025/26 | 43.0% | 23.0% | 34.1% |
What I take from this is that a single season's draw rate is a poor guide to the next. The most recent split of 43.0% home, 23.0% draw and 34.1% away is not far from where 2011/12 started, at 41.5%, 26.0% and 32.6%. I anchor on the long-run figures and treat yearly drift as noise unless something structural has changed.
§ 2Fair odds shift sharply once the home price passes 2.00
Here every match is grouped by the home win price, with the actual outcome split and the fair odds those rates imply. At the short end, home sides priced under 1.50 won 76.3% of 535 matches, fair at 1.31. At the long end, hosts priced 4.00+ won only 17.8%, and away sides in those games won 60.8%, fair at 1.64.
The busiest band is 2.00–2.49, with 2,298 matches. There the split was 42.3% home, 27.0% draw and 30.7% away, which gives fair odds of 2.37 / 3.70 / 3.25. That is the closest this division comes to a coin-flip match with a draw attached, and it is where I spend most of my time.
| Home odds | Matches | Home win | Draw | Away win | Fair odds 1 / X / 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | 535 | 76.3% | 14.8% | 9.0% | 1.31 / 6.77 / 11.15 |
| 1.50–1.99 | 2,145 | 52.3% | 24.8% | 22.9% | 1.91 / 4.03 / 4.37 |
| 2.00–2.49 | 2,298 | 42.3% | 27.0% | 30.7% | 2.37 / 3.70 / 3.25 |
| 2.50–2.99 | 1,192 | 34.7% | 27.2% | 38.1% | 2.88 / 3.68 / 2.63 |
| 3.00–3.99 | 975 | 27.2% | 26.4% | 46.5% | 3.68 / 3.79 / 2.15 |
| 4.00+ | 490 | 17.8% | 21.4% | 60.8% | 5.63 / 4.67 / 1.64 |
The draw is the column I study. It sits at 27.0% and 27.2% in the two middle bands, so the fair draw price there is 3.70 and 3.68. Compare any posted draw price in an evenly matched National League game against those figures before dismissing it.
§ 3Away sides were the only selection to clear zero
This chart shows flat-stake returns on every home side, draw, away side, favourite and underdog, at the main price and at the best price across the market. Draws were the worst blanket bet, at −10.5% main and −6.0% best. Home sides came in at −7.9% and −3.1%.
Every away side lost −4.8% at the main price but returned +1.5% at the best price. Underdogs as a group came in just above zero at the best price, at +0.2%, while favourites stayed negative.
View the data: flat-stake returns on each 1x2 selection
| Main price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Every home side | −7.9% | −3.1% |
| Every draw | −10.5% | −6.0% |
| Every away side | −4.8% | +1.5% |
| Every favourite | −6.3% | −1.8% |
| Every underdog | −6.3% | +0.2% |
I read this as evidence that the market slightly overrates home sides relative to travellers in this league, not as a strategy. Best-price returns assume every bet was struck at the top number available, which rarely happens, and an edge of a point or two over this many matches can easily come down to chance. The direction is useful. The exact figure is not a promise.
§ 4Day of the week barely moves the result split
Plenty of bettors believe midweek fixtures favour away sides or produce more draws. The chart says otherwise. Saturday matches, 4,753 of them, ended 43.3% home, 25.1% draw and 31.6% away, and Tuesday–Thursday games finished 42.5%, 25.1% and 32.4%.
Friday or Monday matches show the softest home figure at 41.6%, with away wins at 33.1%. That is a sample of 592, though, and the gap is slight. I would not move a price on the day of the week alone.
View the data: weekend vs midweek: the 1x2 split
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday (4,753) | 43.3% | 25.1% | 31.6% |
| Friday or Monday (592) | 41.6% | 25.3% | 33.1% |
| Tuesday–Thursday (2,198) | 42.5% | 25.1% | 32.4% |
Almanac verdict
- Price the away side properly
- Away sides won 32.1% of National League matches and returned +1.5% at the best price. Shop for the best away number before writing a traveller off.
- Use the band's fair draw
- When the home price sits between 2.00 and 2.99, draws landed 27.0% to 27.2% of the time. Check posted draw odds against fair prices of 3.70 and 3.68.
- Ignore the fixture day
- Saturday and midweek splits are almost identical, with draws at 25.1% in both. Spend your time on form, team news and motivation instead.
Questions bettors ask
How often do National League matches end in a draw?
Across 7,635 matches from 2011/12 to 2025/26, 25.1% finished level. Individual seasons ranged from 22.1% in 2020/21 to 29.5% in 2017/18.
What are fair odds for a heavy home favourite in the National League?
Home sides priced under 1.50 won 76.3% of 535 matches, which gives fair odds of 1.31 / 6.77 / 11.15 for home, draw and away.
Is backing away sides in the National League profitable?
Every away side returned +1.5% at the best price but −4.8% at the main price. Small edges like this can arise by chance, so treat it as a lean rather than a system.
I'm Talia Rosen, based in Las Vegas, and I write the win-draw-win tips at fixed-match.tips — treating the match-result market as a question of price against probability, never of backing the bigger badge.
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