National League HT/FT Stats: Nine Results, Two Eras and the Clubs
Fifteen seasons of half-time and full-time scores show a division where away sides lead and hold more often, and the draw at both ends of the match is rarer.
Compiled by Greta JanssensHalf Time / Full Time specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Home/Home share in the National League25.1%
- Away/Away share18.3%
- Fav/Fav rate, favourites under 1.4050.6%
- Grimsby: led at HT and won31.0%
The National League is England's fifth tier. Squads are uneven, travel is long and plenty of sides are full-time professionals in name only. I wanted to know whether that shows up in how matches unfold across two halves, not just in who wins. This file covers 7,686 league matches from 2011/12 to 2025/26.
The headline answer is that the division is slightly more away-friendly than the rest of Europe. Away/Away lands 18.3% of the time, Home/Home 25.1%, and Draw/Draw is noticeably scarcer than elsewhere. If you want daily picks rather than base rates, my half-time/full-time tips page is where those live. This almanac entry is the groundwork underneath them.
§ 1Away sides lead and hold more than elsewhere
This dumbbell sets each of the nine results against the other 21 divisions pooled, which comes to 148,490 matches. The largest gap is Away/Away: 18.3% here against 16.4% elsewhere, a surplus of +1.9 points. That ranks 5th-highest of the 22 divisions in the study.
At the other end, Draw/Draw is the biggest shortfall, 14.7% against 16.3%, or −1.6 points. Home/Home sits at 25.1% with a 95% range of ±1.0, a little under the 26.4% seen in the other divisions. Draw/Away also edges above the pooled figure, at 11.6% against 10.7%.
View the data: ht/ft mix vs the other 21 divisions
| Other 21 divisions | National League | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home/Home (1,929 matches) | 26.4% | 25.1% | ±1 |
| Draw/Home (1,146 matches) | 15.3% | 14.9% | ±0.8 |
| Away/Home (219 matches) | 2.5% | 2.8% | ±0.4 |
| Home/Draw (425 matches) | 5.2% | 5.5% | ±0.5 |
| Draw/Draw (1,132 matches) | 16.3% | 14.7% | ±0.8 |
| Away/Draw (375 matches) | 5.1% | 4.9% | ±0.5 |
| Home/Away (157 matches) | 2.0% | 2.0% | ±0.3 |
| Draw/Away (893 matches) | 10.7% | 11.6% | ±0.7 |
| Away/Away (1,410 matches) | 16.4% | 18.3% | ±0.9 |
To me, that is one pattern rather than three separate facts. Visiting sides here are more willing and more able to take a game to the hosts, and fewer matches stay level for ninety minutes. A bettor who prices this league with a generic European template will tend to undervalue the away paths.
§ 2The away tilt has grown slightly between eras
Splitting the record into 2011/12-2017/18 (3,864 matches) and 2018/19-2025/26 (3,822) gives two halves of almost equal size. Away/Away rose from 17.8% to 18.9%, the biggest climb at +1.1 points. Draw/Draw fell furthest, from 15.3% to 14.1%, a drop of −1.2 points.
Home/Home barely moved, 25.2% to 25.0%. Draw/Home slipped from 15.2% to 14.6%. So the home side's direct route has held steady, while fewer matches finish level and more away sides convert a lead.
| HT/FT result | 2011/12-2017/18 | 2018/19-2025/26 | Change (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home/Home | 25.2% | 25.0% | −0.2 |
| Draw/Home | 15.2% | 14.6% | −0.6 |
| Away/Home | 2.6% | 3.1% | +0.5 |
| Home/Draw | 5.2% | 5.8% | +0.6 |
| Draw/Draw | 15.3% | 14.1% | −1.2 |
| Away/Draw | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0 |
| Home/Away | 1.9% | 2.2% | +0.3 |
| Draw/Away | 11.8% | 11.4% | −0.4 |
| Away/Away | 17.8% | 18.9% | +1.1 |
These are modest shifts and I would not build a strategy on any single row. Still, the direction matches the comparison with Europe. Whatever makes this division away-friendly has not faded, and if anything it has become more pronounced.
§ 3Short favourites usually win from the front
Here the 1X2 favourite is tracked through each price band. Under 1.40 (328 matches), the favourite led at half-time and won 50.6% of the time and failed to win 20.4%. At 2.40+ (1,027 matches), Fav/Fav dropped to 20.6% and the favourite failed to win 63.2% of the time.
The middle path matters as well. Draw/Fav, where the favourite is level at the break and then wins, ranged from 24.4% at the short end down to 13.2% at the long end. Comebacks from behind are rare in every band, at 4.6% under 1.40 and 2.9% at 2.40+.
View the data: how favourites win, by pre-match price
| Fav/Fav | Draw/Fav | Behind/Fav | Fav did not win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fav under 1.40 (328) | 50.6% | 24.4% | 4.6% | 20.4% |
| Fav 1.40-1.69 (1,250) | 38.0% | 19.6% | 4.1% | 38.3% |
| Fav 1.70-1.99 (1,839) | 29.5% | 18.1% | 2.7% | 49.8% |
| Fav 2.00-2.39 (3,105) | 25.9% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 56.8% |
| Fav 2.40+ (1,027) | 20.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 63.2% |
This is the chart I return to most. In this league a favourite that is behind at the interval almost never turns it round. A short-priced favourite that is level at half-time, however, still has real second-half life. Those two situations deserve very different treatment.
§ 4Grimsby top the clubs for leading and winning
This chart pools each club's home and away matches and shows how often they led at the break and went on to win. Only the 38 clubs with at least 150 matches are included. Grimsby top the list at 31.0% across 274 matches, ahead of Notts County at 30.4% and Forest Green at 30.0%.
The tenth club, Sutton, sits at 25.1%. The lowest of all 38 is Maidstone at 12.0% from 184 matches. That spread from top to bottom is wide enough to matter when you price a single fixture.
View the data: clubs: led at half-time and won
| National League: share of each club's matches (n), clubs with 150+ matches | |
|---|---|
| Grimsby (274) | 31.0% |
| Notts County (171) | 30.4% |
| Forest Green (337) | 30.0% |
| Southend (197) | 29.4% |
| Wrexham (538) | 27.3% |
| Barnet (367) | 26.4% |
| Lincoln (276) | 26.1% |
| Macclesfield (276) | 26.1% |
| Bromley (401) | 25.4% |
| Sutton (279) | 25.1% |
One caution applies across this whole file. These shares describe what happened. They are not a forecast, and HT/FT prices are not in the record, so none of these rates has been checked against what the market actually offers. Club figures also blend different squads and managers over many seasons.
Almanac verdict
- Respect the away paths
- Away/Away runs at 18.3% here against 16.4% elsewhere, so do not let a generic European price talk you out of the visitors leading and holding.
- Be wary of Draw/Draw
- Draw/Draw has fallen to 14.1% in the recent era and sits below the pooled rate. That calls for extra caution before backing a stalemate in both halves.
- Price comebacks as rare
- Favourites came from behind to win in only 4.6% of matches even under 1.40, so a long HT/FT price on that path is often simply fair rather than generous.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common HT/FT result in the National League?
Home/Home is the most common, at 25.1% of 7,686 matches from 2011/12 to 2025/26. Away/Away follows at 18.3%.
How often does a strong National League favourite lead at half-time and win?
Favourites priced under 1.40 went Fav/Fav in 50.6% of 328 matches. They failed to win 20.4% of the time.
Which National League club most often leads at half-time and wins?
Grimsby, at 31.0% of their 274 league matches in the study. Notts County are next at 30.4%, then Forest Green at 30.0%.
I'm Greta Janssens, based in Brussels, and I write the half-time/full-time tips at fixed-match.tips — focused on how teams start, how they finish, and what happens in between.
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