Premier League Best Bets: Which Simple Selections Hold Up Best?
Twenty-one Premier League seasons of double chance, draw no bet, Asian lines and goal lines, measured by hit rate, price and the losing runs they put you through.
Compiled by Nurul AdiraValue & Sure Bet specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- double chance 1X hit rate69.9%
- best flat-stake return (home win)−2.2%
- longest 1X losing run, in bets8
- league matches analysed7,980
When friends ask me for the one Premier League bet they can lean on, they usually mean the selection that wins most often. That is a fair instinct, but it is only half the question. A bet that lands often but is priced too short still costs money, and a bet that pays well but goes cold for weeks tests anyone's nerve.
So I took every simple selection I see people reach for and ran it across 7,980 league matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26. The headline is plain: nothing beat the price over the long run, though some came much closer than others, and a few lost far less painfully. If you use my best bet selections page, this is the baseline every one of my Premier League picks has to clear.
§ 1Home win priced best, away win priced worst
The scorecard lines up every selection backed blind in every match. Double chance 1X won 69.9% of the time, but flat stakes on it returned −4.1%. The best-priced bet was the plain home win at −2.2%, with the home side on the Asian line close behind at −2.5%. At the other end, away win returned −8.4% and away draw no bet −7.9%.
The profitable-seasons column is the one I would underline. Home win made money in 10 of 21 seasons, while double chance 1X, for all its winning, managed only 4 of 21. Winning often and winning money are different things.
| Selection | Bets | Won | Return | Longest losing run | Profitable seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1X | 7,980 | 69.9% | −4.1% | 8 | 4 of 21 |
| Double chance X2 | 7,980 | 54.4% | −6.9% | 11 | 3 of 21 |
| Home draw no bet | 7,980 | 45.6% | −3.2% | 8 | 6 of 21 |
| Away draw no bet | 7,980 | 30.1% | −7.9% | 11 | 4 of 21 |
| Home win | 7,980 | 45.6% | −2.2% | 13 | 10 of 21 |
| Away win | 7,980 | 30.1% | −8.4% | 29 | 6 of 21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 7,978 | 52.3% | −4.7% | 12 | 3 of 21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 7,978 | 47.7% | −6.5% | 14 | 2 of 21 |
| Home side, Asian line | 7,966 | 45.5% | −2.5% | 10 | 6 of 21 |
| Away side, Asian line | 7,966 | 44.4% | −3.9% | 10 | 5 of 21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 7,980 | 76.0% | n/a | 6 | n/a |
| Under 3.5 goals | 7,980 | 70.0% | n/a | 7 | n/a |
Over 1.5 and under 3.5 had no prices, so no return. Draw-no-bet and Asian-line refunds are not wins.
My reading: the Premier League prices the home side fairly tightly, and the away side carries the heavier cost. Over 1.5 and under 3.5 show high hit rates but had no prices recorded, so I treat them as reference lines rather than tested bets.
§ 2The market's priced chances sit very close to reality
This chart sets the margin-free priced chance against how often each outcome actually landed. Home win was priced at 44.6% and won 45.6%, which is slightly better than the market expected. Double chance X2 went the other way, priced at 55.4% and winning only 54.4%.
Over 2.5 goals landed 52.3% against 51.8% priced, and under 2.5 landed 47.7% against 48.2%. Every gap here is small, roughly the width of the shaded uncertainty range.
View the data: priced chance vs how often it won
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1X (7,980 bets) | 69.4% | 69.9% | ±1 |
| Double chance X2 (7,980 bets) | 55.4% | 54.4% | ±1.1 |
| Home win (7,980 bets) | 44.6% | 45.6% | ±1.1 |
| Away win (7,980 bets) | 30.6% | 30.1% | ±1 |
| Over 2.5 goals (7,978 bets) | 51.8% | 52.3% | ±1.1 |
| Under 2.5 goals (7,978 bets) | 48.2% | 47.7% | ±1.1 |
This is where the main caveat belongs. Returns within a few points of zero can come from chance alone over a few thousand bets, so I read these gaps as hints about where the margin bites hardest, never as a system. The pattern does fit what I see week to week: home sides and overs have been a touch underpriced, while away-leaning selections have been a touch overpriced.
§ 3Away win bets once lost 29 in a row
Hit rate tells you how often you win. The losing run tells you what it feels like when you don't. Over 1.5 goals never lost more than 6 straight, and double chance 1X topped out at 8. Home win ran to 13 consecutive losers.
Away win is the outlier at 29 straight losers. Few bettors would keep backing the same idea through a stretch like that, and most would quit right before it turned.
View the data: longest losing run, selection by selection
| Most consecutive losing bets, all seasons in date order | |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 6 bets |
| Under 3.5 goals | 7 bets |
| Double chance 1X | 8 bets |
| Home draw no bet | 8 bets |
| Home side, Asian line | 10 bets |
| Away side, Asian line | 10 bets |
| Double chance X2 | 11 bets |
| Away draw no bet | 11 bets |
| Over 2.5 goals | 12 bets |
| Home win | 13 bets |
| Under 2.5 goals | 14 bets |
| Away win | 29 bets |
One caution when comparing: longer samples breed longer runs, so this works best between selections with similar bet counts, which nearly all of these are. I size stakes for the worst run, not the average week.
§ 4High-hit lines swing more by season than you'd expect
The three highest-hit lines look steady in aggregate, but season by season they move. Double chance 1X ranged from 59.7% in 2020/21 to 76.3% in 2010/11. Over 1.5 goals swung between 70.0% and 86.1%, and under 3.5 between 56.3% and 76.6%.
Notice 2023/24: over 1.5 peaked at 86.1% while under 3.5 dropped to 56.3% in the same season. A high-scoring campaign lifts one line and sinks the other at once.
View the data: season by season: the three highest-hit lines
| Double chance 1X | Over 1.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 70.8% | 70.0% | 75.5% |
| 2006/07 | 73.7% | 71.3% | 76.6% |
| 2007/08 | 72.6% | 73.7% | 72.6% |
| 2008/09 | 71.1% | 70.0% | 74.7% |
| 2009/10 | 76.1% | 76.1% | 70.3% |
| 2010/11 | 76.3% | 79.2% | 70.3% |
| 2011/12 | 69.5% | 78.9% | 70.5% |
| 2012/13 | 72.1% | 74.7% | 68.2% |
| 2013/14 | 67.6% | 73.2% | 66.8% |
| 2014/15 | 69.7% | 71.6% | 73.9% |
| 2015/16 | 69.5% | 73.2% | 69.5% |
| 2016/17 | 71.3% | 77.4% | 67.6% |
| 2017/18 | 71.6% | 73.9% | 70.8% |
| 2018/19 | 66.3% | 79.7% | 68.4% |
| 2019/20 | 69.5% | 80.0% | 71.8% |
| 2020/21 | 59.7% | 73.4% | 73.2% |
| 2021/22 | 66.1% | 77.1% | 67.4% |
| 2022/23 | 71.3% | 75.5% | 68.2% |
| 2023/24 | 67.6% | 86.1% | 56.3% |
| 2024/25 | 65.3% | 81.3% | 65.8% |
| 2025/26 | 70.0% | 78.9% | 71.6% |
At 69.9%, the 1X hit rate ranks 13th of the 20 divisions in this series, so the Premier League is middling for home-or-draw cover. I check how the current season is scoring before trusting any goal line's long-run average.
Almanac verdict
- Favour the home side
- Home win at −2.2% and the home Asian line at −2.5% were the closest to fair in this league. If I'm building a Premier League edge, I start from the home side rather than the away side, where away win cost −8.4%.
- Don't pay for comfort
- Double chance 1X wins 69.9% of the time but profited in only 4 of 21 seasons. I only take it when my own estimate clearly beats a price that is already tight.
- Budget for the drought
- Away win once went 29 bets without a winner and home win 13. I set stakes so the worst run on record would not end my season.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most reliable simple bet in the Premier League?
By hit rate, over 1.5 goals landed in 76.0% of matches, with fair odds of 1.32. No prices were recorded for that line, though, so its return could not be measured.
Is double chance profitable in the Premier League?
Not when backed blind. Double chance 1X won 69.9% but returned −4.1%, and X2 returned −6.9%.
Is draw no bet better than a straight home win in the Premier League?
Home draw no bet returned −3.2%, slightly worse than the plain home win at −2.2%. It does shorten the bad spells, with a longest losing run of 8 against 13 for the home win.
I'm Nurul Adira, based in Phuket, and I write the best-bet selections at fixed-match.tips — the highest-confidence calls of the week, framed honestly around value and staking rather than false guarantees.
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