Scottish Championship 1X2: Is the Draw Underpriced With 10 Clubs?
In the ten-team second tier, the draw has landed more often than its price implies. The gap is real but thin, and it is concentrated in particular kinds of match.
Compiled by Talia RosenWin-Draw-Win (1X2) specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Scottish Championship draw rate27.3%
- Average priced draw chance25.6%
- Return on every draw, best price+3.4%
- Matches analysed3,668
In a ten-team league where clubs face each other again and again, familiarity is supposed to breed stalemates. I wanted to test that folklore against the prices. This study covers 3,668 Scottish Championship matches with full 1X2 odds, comparing how often each result was priced to happen with how often it actually did. It sits alongside my free 1X2 tips page as the reference file I check before I price a match in this division.
The headline answer is yes, modestly. Draws landed in 27.3% of matches against an average margin-free priced chance of 25.6%, while home wins came in at 41.3% and away wins at 31.3%. Backing every draw returned −1.4% at the main price and +3.4% at the best price. So the draw is slightly underrated here, but the margin absorbs most of that unless you shop for price.
§ 1Draws have outrun their price in both eras
This chart sets each result's priced chance against how often it happened, split into two eras. In the first era the draw was priced at 25.2% and landed 26.5% of the time across 1,798 matches. In the second it was priced at 25.9% and landed 28.2% across 1,870 matches.
Home and away wins tell the mirror story. Home wins were priced at 42.8% and landed 41.8%, then priced at 41.8% and landed 40.9%. Away wins slipped slightly below their price in both eras too, finishing at 31.0% against 32.3% priced in the later period.
View the data: priced vs actual: home, draw and away
| Priced | Actually happened | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home win, 2005/06–2014/15 (1,798 matches) | 42.8% | 41.8% | ±2.3 |
| Home win, 2015/16–2025/26 (1,870 matches) | 41.8% | 40.9% | ±2.2 |
| Draw, 2005/06–2014/15 (1,798 matches) | 25.2% | 26.5% | ±2 |
| Draw, 2015/16–2025/26 (1,870 matches) | 25.9% | 28.2% | ±2 |
| Away win, 2005/06–2014/15 (1,798 matches) | 32.0% | 31.7% | ±2.2 |
| Away win, 2015/16–2025/26 (1,870 matches) | 32.3% | 31.0% | ±2.1 |
What I take from this: the market has nudged its draw price upwards, but the outcome itself has moved further. The probability the draw has been missing has come mostly from the away side in recent seasons, which is the price I scrutinise first when I suspect a stalemate.
§ 2The draw edge sits in moderately uneven matches
Here every match is sorted by how far apart the two win prices were. When the sides were nearly level, with a ratio under 1.25, the draw landed 27.2% of the time against 27.4% priced across 848 matches. The market reads genuine coin flips correctly.
The interesting rows are just beyond that. With a ratio of 1.25–1.59 the draw landed 31.8% against 27.2% priced over 770 matches, and in the 1.60–2.19 band it was 29.1% against 26.5%. At the far end it reverses: in the most lopsided matches, at 6.00+, only 12.7% of 158 were drawn against 16.4% priced.
View the data: draws when the sides are close vs far apart
| Draw priced | Drawn | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ratio Under 1.25 (848 matches) | 27.4% | 27.2% | ±3 |
| Ratio 1.25–1.59 (770 matches) | 27.2% | 31.8% | ±3.3 |
| Ratio 1.60–2.19 (781 matches) | 26.5% | 29.1% | ±3.2 |
| Ratio 2.20–3.49 (720 matches) | 24.9% | 25.6% | ±3.2 |
| Ratio 3.50–5.99 (391 matches) | 21.8% | 24.6% | ±4.3 |
| Ratio 6.00+ (158 matches) | 16.4% | 12.7% | ±5.2 |
My reading is that the market leans too hard on the stronger side when the gap is mild, and this is where I look for draw value. When one team is a heavy favourite, the draw price has actually been too short, so I leave it alone.
§ 3Short draw prices paid, the 4.00 band did not
This chart shows flat-stake returns from backing the draw within each price band. Draws priced under 3.25 returned +9.9% at the main price and +16.3% at the best price across 300 matches, with 35.0% of them drawn. The 3.75–3.99 band was also profitable, at +15.5% at the best price.
The weak spot is 4.00–4.49, which returned −15.2% at the main price on 332 matches, with only 20.5% drawn. The pattern is not a smooth curve, and that alone should make you cautious about reading too much into any single band.
View the data: backing the draw: return by draw price
| Main price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.25 | +9.9% | +16.3% |
| 3.25–3.49 | −4.6% | +0.8% |
| 3.50–3.74 | −1.7% | +1.3% |
| 3.75–3.99 | +9.9% | +15.5% |
| 4.00–4.49 | −15.2% | −10.4% |
| 4.50+ | −1.9% | +5.9% |
| Every draw | −1.4% | +3.4% |
The caveat I hold myself to: these are historical returns on samples of a few hundred matches, and gaps of this size can appear by chance. The best-price figures also assume you always got the top price on offer, which rarely happens in practice. I treat these bands as a prompt to price a match carefully, not as a system.
§ 4Season draw rates swing widely around a steady middle
The season-by-season lines are noisy. The draw rate ranged from 21.1% in 2013/14 to 33.9% in 2005/06, home wins peaked at 47.2% in 2015/16 and bottomed out at 36.7% in 2023/24, and away wins hit 38.9% in 2012/13.
Strikingly, the 2025/26 split of 38.9% home, 33.9% draws and 27.2% away almost matches the 38.3%, 33.9% and 27.8% recorded in 2005/06. With only 180 league matches a season, swings of several points come from sampling alone.
View the data: scottish championship: home, draw and away by season
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 38.3% | 33.9% | 27.8% |
| 2006/07 | 43.3% | 26.7% | 30.0% |
| 2007/08 | 44.4% | 28.9% | 26.7% |
| 2008/09 | 40.6% | 27.8% | 31.7% |
| 2009/10 | 45.8% | 25.1% | 29.1% |
| 2010/11 | 40.8% | 26.3% | 33.0% |
| 2011/12 | 38.9% | 30.0% | 31.1% |
| 2012/13 | 37.2% | 23.9% | 38.9% |
| 2013/14 | 46.7% | 21.1% | 32.2% |
| 2014/15 | 42.2% | 21.1% | 36.7% |
| 2015/16 | 47.2% | 22.8% | 30.0% |
| 2016/17 | 38.9% | 32.8% | 28.3% |
| 2017/18 | 42.8% | 24.4% | 32.8% |
| 2018/19 | 38.0% | 27.4% | 34.6% |
| 2019/20 | 43.8% | 23.4% | 32.8% |
| 2020/21 | 41.5% | 31.9% | 26.7% |
| 2021/22 | 37.2% | 32.2% | 30.6% |
| 2022/23 | 39.4% | 29.4% | 31.1% |
| 2023/24 | 36.7% | 26.1% | 37.2% |
| 2024/25 | 46.5% | 25.2% | 28.3% |
| 2025/26 | 38.9% | 33.9% | 27.2% |
I do not chase a hot draw season or abandon the draw after a cold one. The long-run base rate is the anchor; a single campaign is a weak signal.
Almanac verdict
- Anchor on the base rate
- Start from a draw chance near 27.3% rather than the priced 25.6% average, then adjust for the matchup. Single seasons have ranged from 21.1% to 33.9%, so don't let one campaign reset your view.
- Target mildly uneven matches
- The draw beat its price most clearly when the win-price ratio was 1.25–1.59, landing 31.8% against 27.2% priced. In the most lopsided games it landed just 12.7% against 16.4% priced, so pass there.
- Shop for the best price
- Every draw returned −1.4% at the main price but +3.4% at the best price. The gap between those two figures is the difference between a losing habit and a thin edge.
Questions bettors ask
How often do Scottish Championship matches end in a draw?
Across 3,668 matches, 27.3% ended level, against 41.3% home wins and 31.3% away wins. The rate has varied by season, from 21.1% in 2013/14 to 33.9% in 2005/06.
Is the draw underpriced in the Scottish Championship?
Slightly. The average margin-free priced chance was 25.6% against a 27.3% actual rate, but backing every draw still returned −1.4% at the main price and only +3.4% at the best price.
Which draw odds have performed best in the Scottish Championship?
Draws priced under 3.25 returned +16.3% at the best price across 300 matches, with 35.0% drawn. The 4.00–4.49 band was the weakest, returning −15.2% at the main price.
I'm Talia Rosen, based in Las Vegas, and I write the win-draw-win tips at fixed-match.tips — treating the match-result market as a question of price against probability, never of backing the bigger badge.
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