Serie A BTTS & Win: Are Away Sides Closing the Gap on Home Teams?
Serie A away sides now win games with both teams scoring far more often than they used to. The home edge in this combination has shrunk to its narrowest in the record.
Compiled by Lehua KahaleBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Away win & BTTS, 2016/17–2025/2615.7%
- Away win & BTTS, 2005/06–2014/1511.9%
- Home win & BTTS, 2016/17–2025/2619.5%
- BTTS & Win results that finished 2-146.6%
Serie A used to be the league where travelling sides kept it tight or lost. I wanted to know whether that still holds for the combination I care about most: a side winning while both teams score. Across 7,980 completed league matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26, the home side did it in 20.0% and the away side in 13.8%.
The headline is that the away rate has climbed from 11.9% to 15.7% while the home rate slipped to 19.5%, so the gap has narrowed sharply without closing. Read this file alongside my free BTTS & win tips page, but treat everything here as base rates. They describe what happened, not what will happen in any single match.
§ 1Away wins with both scoring rose while home ones held
This chart compares the two ten-season blocks either side of 2015/16, with 3,800 matches in each. Home win & BTTS barely moved, from 20.4% to 19.5%, a shift of −0.9 points. Away win & BTTS jumped +3.8 points, from 11.9% to 15.7%.
The supporting rows explain why. Home wins to nil fell from 26.0% to 22.5%, and BTTS yes rose from 51.6% to 53.9%. Home sides are keeping fewer clean sheets, and away sides are scoring and winning more.
View the data: serie a then and now: btts & win and related outcomes
| 2005/06–2014/15 | 2016/17–2025/26 | |
|---|---|---|
| Home win & BTTS (3,800 v 3,800) | 20.4% | 19.5% |
| Away win & BTTS (3,800 v 3,800) | 11.9% | 15.7% |
| Home win to nil (3,800 v 3,800) | 26.0% | 22.5% |
| Away win to nil (3,800 v 3,800) | 14.2% | 16.8% |
| Score draw (3,800 v 3,800) | 19.3% | 18.7% |
| BTTS yes (3,800 v 3,800) | 51.6% | 53.9% |
For me the key figure is the gap: 8.5 points in the first block, 3.8 points in the second. Serie A sits 10th of 22 divisions for either team winning with both scoring at 33.8%, which is mid-table for the market. Within that, the split between home and away has changed shape far more than the total has.
§ 2The away line peaked mid-period before settling back
Season by season, the picture is less tidy than the two-block averages suggest. Away win & BTTS bottomed out at 9.5% in 2008/09 and peaked at 22.4% in 2019/20, the season played largely without crowds. The seasons either side of that also ran high, then the line dropped back to the low teens.
The home line tells its own story. It hit 26.1% in 2016/17 and has drifted down since, reaching its lowest point of 15.5% in 2025/26.
Each point is one league season.
View the data: serie a btts & win by season
| Home win & BTTS | Away win & BTTS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 21.8% | 12.9% |
| 2006/07 | 18.9% | 11.8% |
| 2007/08 | 18.7% | 11.1% |
| 2008/09 | 19.7% | 9.5% |
| 2009/10 | 24.2% | 13.2% |
| 2010/11 | 21.1% | 12.1% |
| 2011/12 | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| 2012/13 | 21.8% | 12.9% |
| 2013/14 | 19.5% | 11.6% |
| 2014/15 | 18.4% | 14.2% |
| 2015/16 | 20.5% | 13.7% |
| 2016/17 | 26.1% | 15.3% |
| 2017/18 | 19.2% | 15.8% |
| 2018/19 | 20.8% | 13.2% |
| 2019/20 | 22.9% | 22.4% |
| 2020/21 | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| 2021/22 | 17.1% | 20.3% |
| 2022/23 | 17.1% | 12.1% |
| 2023/24 | 16.8% | 13.9% |
| 2024/25 | 17.9% | 12.6% |
| 2025/26 | 15.5% | 13.2% |
In 2005/06 the rates were 21.8% home and 12.9% away. In 2025/26 they were 15.5% and 13.2%, the closest pairing on the chart. That is one season of 380 matches, so I read it as a direction to watch rather than a new normal, especially as the away line has already fallen back once.
§ 3Short-priced away favourites land this combination more often
Here I hold the price band constant and compare home favourites with away favourites. Under 1.50, home favourites won with both scoring in 30.8% of 1,285 matches, while away favourites did so in 34.9% of 249. At 1.50–1.79 the two are almost level, 27.4% against 27.6%.
The pattern holds through most of the middle bands, with away favourites matching or slightly edging home ones. Only at 2.50+ does the home side nose ahead, 18.5% against 17.6%.
Only bands with 100+ home and 100+ away favourites shown.
View the data: serie a: home vs away favourite to win & btts
| Home favourite | Away favourite | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 (1,285 home · 249 away) | 30.8% | 34.9% |
| 1.50–1.79 (1,169 home · 562 away) | 27.4% | 27.6% |
| 1.80–2.09 (1,121 home · 558 away) | 23.3% | 23.8% |
| 2.10–2.49 (1,372 home · 754 away) | 18.3% | 21.4% |
| 2.50+ (486 home · 370 away) | 18.5% | 17.6% |
My read is that a short-priced away favourite tends to face a home side willing to attack, which opens the game at both ends. The heavy away sample is small at 249 matches, so I weight that top band with care, but the direction fits everything else in this file.
§ 4Two-one settles almost half of these results
Of the 2,695 Serie A matches won with both teams scoring, 2-1 accounted for 46.6%. That means almost half of winning tickets landed on exactly three goals, the bare minimum the bet requires. Next come 3-1 at 20.7% and 3-2 at 12.7%, with 4-1 at 7.9% and everything outside the six listed scores at 5.6%.
This matters because the market is decided by a single goal. A winning side up 2-0 late and a 1-1 game in the final minutes both sit one goal away from settling the bet either way.
View the data: serie a: the scores that settle btts & win
| Winner's score first; % of 2,695 BTTS & Win results | |
|---|---|
| 2-1 | 46.6% |
| 3-1 | 20.7% |
| 3-2 | 12.7% |
| 4-1 | 7.9% |
| 4-2 | 4.0% |
| 4-3 | 2.3% |
| Any other | 5.6% |
One caveat runs through all of this: the records hold no BTTS & Win prices, so these are hit rates and fair odds, not proven returns at real prices. Compare any price you are offered against the fair figures, and remember that the bookmaker's margin sits on top.
Almanac verdict
- Stop dismissing away sides
- Away win & BTTS ran at 15.7% in the recent block against 11.9% earlier. Older instincts about Serie A away sides being cagey can underrate this outcome.
- Check short away favourites
- Away favourites under 1.50 won with both scoring 34.9% of the time against 30.8% for home favourites. On a small sample, that is a lead worth checking, not a rule.
- Price against fair odds
- Across the full record, fair odds are 5.01 for home win & BTTS and 7.25 for away. If an offered price sits below those after margin, the base rate alone does not justify it.
Questions bettors ask
How often does the home team win with both teams scoring in Serie A?
Across 7,980 matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26, the home side won with both teams scoring in 20.0% of games, fair odds 5.01. In the most recent ten seasons the rate was 19.5%.
Has the Serie A away win & BTTS rate caught up with the home rate?
Not fully, but the gap has narrowed from 8.5 points to 3.8 points between the two ten-season blocks. In 2025/26 alone it was 15.5% home against 13.2% away.
What is the most common score when a team wins and both teams score in Serie A?
2-1, which settled 46.6% of the 2,695 qualifying matches. 3-1 followed at 20.7% and 3-2 at 12.7%.
I'm Lehua Kahale, based in Honolulu, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at fixed-match.tips — where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
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