La Liga BTTS & Win Stats: Real Madrid, Atlético and the Away Gap
Real Madrid's opponents score in 51.7% of its wins, Atlético's in just 35.5%, and La Liga's home-away gap in this market is among the widest in Europe.
Compiled by Lehua KahaleBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief7 min read
- Home win & BTTS, all matches20.5%
- Away win & BTTS, all matches12.9%
- Real Madrid wins with the opponent scoring51.7%
- Atlético Madrid wins with the opponent scoring35.5%
Watching La Liga from Honolulu means kick-offs at breakfast and no local loyalties, which suits a market like BTTS & win. It is a combination bet: you need a side good enough to win and loose enough to concede. If you came here from my today's BTTS & win picks page, this is the background file behind it, covering 7,600 completed league matches.
The headline is that one of the two teams won with both sides scoring in 33.4% of La Liga matches, which puts Spain 11th of the 22 European divisions studied. The more useful finding for a bettor is the split. Home sides landed it in 20.5% of matches and away sides in 12.9%, and the clubs that drive those numbers behave very differently from one another.
§ 1Home wins to nil outnumber home wins with BTTS
This chart splits every match into six outcomes. The highlighted bars are the two that pay in this market: home win & BTTS at 20.5% (fair odds 4.88) and away win & BTTS at 12.9% (fair odds 7.76). Next to each sits its clean-sheet twin, and in both cases the win to nil is bigger. Home wins to nil took 26.3% and away wins to nil 15.4%.
The rest of the board is draws. Score draws such as 1-1 or 2-2 took 17.6% and 0-0 finished 7.3%. When I price this market, that score-draw bar is where many of my 'nearly' outcomes end up: both teams scored, but neither one won.
View the data: la liga: the six result-and-btts outcomes
| Share of 7,600 matches, 2005/06–2025/26 | |
|---|---|
| Home win & BTTS | 20.5% |
| Home win to nil | 26.3% |
| Score draw | 17.6% |
| 0-0 | 7.3% |
| Away win & BTTS | 12.9% |
| Away win to nil | 15.4% |
The gap between the home and away versions is 7.6 points, second of the 22 divisions studied. Only the Süper Lig shows a wider one at 8.0 points, and the Scottish Premiership shows the narrowest at 2.3. In La Liga, the venue matters more than in almost any league I track.
§ 2Real Madrid's wins leak goals; Atlético's mostly stay clean
This chart answers a narrower question. When a club wins, how often has the opponent scored? Across the league the figure is 44.5%. Of the 19 clubs with 100 or more wins, Real Madrid sits at the top. Its opponents scored in 51.7% of 530 wins, with Villarreal close behind at 49.5%.
Atlético Madrid is at the opposite end. Its opponents scored in only 35.5% of 422 wins, the lowest share of any qualifying club. That is the profile I warn people about. A strong favourite that wins often is not automatically a good BTTS & win side if its wins usually come to nil.
Wins in brackets. Top 8 and bottom 4 of 19 clubs. League-wide 44.5%.
View the data: la liga: share of each club's wins with btts
| Clubs with 100+ league wins, % of wins where the opponent scored | |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid (530) | 51.7% |
| Villarreal (321) | 49.5% |
| Levante (140) | 48.6% |
| Málaga (128) | 47.7% |
| Osasuna (190) | 46.8% |
| Mallorca (157) | 46.5% |
| Valencia (309) | 45.6% |
| Real Betis (228) | 45.6% |
| Espanyol (207) | 40.6% |
| Rayo Vallecano (131) | 40.5% |
| Deportivo La Coruña (106) | 37.7% |
| Atlético Madrid (422) | 35.5% |
Deportivo La Coruña at 37.7% and Espanyol at 40.6% also lean towards clean wins. Levante at 48.6% and Málaga at 47.7% won less often, but when they did win, they usually conceded on the way.
§ 3Atlético Madrid show the widest home-away split among regulars
This chart covers the 10 clubs with the most La Liga matches since 2005/06. It shows how often each one won with both teams scoring at home and away. Atlético Madrid has the widest split: 26.3% at home against 13.2% away. Its away wins tend to be tight and goal-shy, which hurts this market from both sides.
Real Madrid is the outlier in the other direction. It has the best away rate among the regulars at 32.4% of 380 away matches, and it reaches 39.7% at home. Barcelona follows a similar pattern at 35.8% and 28.2%.
View the data: la liga regulars: btts & win home vs away
| At home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid (380 home · 380 away) | 39.7% | 32.4% |
| Barcelona (380 home · 380 away) | 35.8% | 28.2% |
| Villarreal (361 home · 361 away) | 26.3% | 17.7% |
| Atlético Madrid (380 home · 380 away) | 26.3% | 13.2% |
| Sevilla (380 home · 380 away) | 25.0% | 13.7% |
| Valencia (380 home · 380 away) | 22.1% | 15.0% |
| Athletic Bilbao (380 home · 380 away) | 21.1% | 13.7% |
| Real Betis (323 home · 323 away) | 17.3% | 14.9% |
| Getafe (361 home · 361 away) | 15.8% | 10.8% |
| Espanyol (342 home · 342 away) | 15.5% | 9.1% |
Real Betis has the narrowest gap at 17.3% home and 14.9% away, so I adjust its numbers least for venue. One caution on all club figures: they span many squads and managers, and they only count the seasons each club spent in La Liga.
§ 4Shorter favourites win with BTTS more, underdogs far less
This table sorts matches by the favourite's 1X2 price. Fair odds here are simply 1 divided by the observed rate. When the favourite was under 1.30, it won with both teams scoring 37.8% of the time (fair odds 2.64). The underdog managed it only 2.8% of the time (fair odds 36.10), from 722 matches.
As the favourite's price gets longer, the two sides converge. In the 1.70–1.99 band the favourite landed it 23.0% (fair odds 4.34). At 2.40+ it fell to 17.4% (fair odds 5.76), while the underdog rose to 13.5% (fair odds 7.41).
| Favourite price | Matches | Fav W&BTTS | Fair odds | Dog W&BTTS | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.30 | 722 | 37.8% | 2.64 | 2.8% | 36.10 |
| 1.30–1.49 | 773 | 31.0% | 3.22 | 4.4% | 22.74 |
| 1.50–1.69 | 1,029 | 27.2% | 3.67 | 8.6% | 11.69 |
| 1.70–1.99 | 1,463 | 23.0% | 4.34 | 9.9% | 10.09 |
| 2.00–2.39 | 2,367 | 19.4% | 5.16 | 11.8% | 8.45 |
| 2.40+ | 1,193 | 17.4% | 5.76 | 13.5% | 7.41 |
Fair odds = 1 ÷ observed rate, no margin.
The main limit of this study is that the records contain no BTTS & win prices. These figures are hit rates and fair odds, not returns at real prices, so you still need to compare them with the price actually on offer. Past rates also do not predict any single match.
Almanac verdict
- Discount Atlético's clean wins
- Opponents scored in only 35.5% of Atlético Madrid's wins, and its away rate in this market is 13.2%. Being a strong favourite does not make it a strong BTTS & win side.
- Weight the venue heavily
- La Liga's home-away gap of 7.6 points ranks 2nd of 22 divisions. Start from 20.5% for the home side and 12.9% for the away side before you adjust for the clubs involved.
- Compare prices against fair odds
- For a favourite in the 1.70–1.99 band, the observed fair odds are 4.34. If the price offered is shorter than the fair odds for its band, the data suggests no edge.
Questions bettors ask
How often does the home team win with both teams scoring in La Liga?
Across 7,600 La Liga matches, the home side won with both teams scoring in 20.5%, which gives fair odds of 4.88. Home wins to nil were more common at 26.3%.
Which La Liga club concedes most often in its wins?
Real Madrid. Among clubs with 100 or more wins, its opponents scored in 51.7% of its 530 La Liga wins. Atlético Madrid had the lowest share at 35.5%.
What are fair odds for a heavy favourite to win with BTTS in La Liga?
With the favourite priced under 1.30, it won with both teams scoring 37.8% of the time, equal to fair odds of 2.64 before any bookmaker margin.
I'm Lehua Kahale, based in Honolulu, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at fixed-match.tips — where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
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