Bundesliga BTTS & Win Stats: How Often Winners Concede Too
Winners in the Bundesliga concede more often than anywhere else studied. Here is how the favourite's price, the club and the calendar shape the BTTS & Win combination.
Compiled by Lehua KahaleBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Either team won & BTTS38.0%
- Away wins with the home side scoring52.7%
- Favourite won & BTTS25.5%
- May rate, best month44.8%
From Honolulu the Bundesliga arrives at dawn, and it has trained me to ask one question before any combination bet. When a side wins here, how often does the other team score along the way? This file is the reference behind my BTTS & win predictions page, built on 6,426 completed league matches from 2005/06–2025/26.
The headline answer is that one team won with both sides scoring in 38.0% of matches. That ranks 2nd of 22 European divisions studied, a whisker behind Scottish League One at 38.1%. More striking still, the Bundesliga ranks 1st for the share of wins in which the loser scored, at 50.8%. Slightly more than half of all winners here concede.
§ 1Home wins split almost evenly between clean and leaky
The six bars cover every way a match can finish once you combine the result with BTTS. Home win to nil edges home win & BTTS, 22.6% against 22.1%, so the two home routes are close to a coin toss. Away, the order flips: away win & BTTS at 16.0% beats away win to nil at 14.3%.
Home win & BTTS converts to fair odds of 4.53 across 1,417 matches. The away version sits at 6.26 from 1,027 matches. Score draws take 18.9% and 0-0 only 6.2%, which tells you how rarely this league shuts down entirely.
View the data: bundesliga: the six result-and-btts outcomes
| Share of 6,426 matches, 2005/06–2025/26 | |
|---|---|
| Home win & BTTS | 22.1% |
| Home win to nil | 22.6% |
| Score draw | 18.9% |
| 0-0 | 6.2% |
| Away win & BTTS | 16.0% |
| Away win to nil | 14.3% |
What I take from it: away winners in Germany concede more often than they keep clean sheets, and 52.7% of away wins came with the home side scoring. When I fancy an away side, the BTTS leg costs less in probability than intuition suggests.
§ 2Short-priced favourites keep clean sheets; long-priced ones leak
This chart splits each favourite's result into three settlements. Under 1.30, favourites won to nil 41.5% and won with both scoring 38.4% across 492 matches, so even heavy favourites leave the combination slightly behind the clean win. At 2.40+, the order reverses: 20.3% won & BTTS, 18.9% won to nil and 60.8% not won across 931 matches.
Across all 6,371 matches with a clear favourite, the favourite won with both scoring 25.5% and won to nil 26.3%. The price changes how often the favourite wins far more than it changes the mix inside those wins.
6,371 matches with a clear 1X2 favourite.
View the data: bundesliga: how favourites' bets settle
| Won & BTTS | Won to nil | Did not win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.30 | 38.4% | 41.5% | 20.1% |
| 1.30–1.49 | 31.7% | 39.4% | 28.8% |
| 1.50–1.69 | 27.5% | 30.3% | 42.2% |
| 1.70–1.99 | 25.1% | 25.3% | 49.6% |
| 2.00–2.39 | 21.9% | 20.4% | 57.6% |
| 2.40+ | 20.3% | 18.9% | 60.8% |
This is the contradiction at the heart of the market: you need a side good enough to win and loose enough to concede. As the price drifts, the BTTS leg takes a slightly bigger share of the wins, but the win leg falls away faster. That is why I treat the favourite's price as the main driver and the BTTS leg as the adjustment.
§ 3Bayern lead the club table; Bielefeld trail far behind
Bayern Munich won with both teams scoring in 33.6% of 714 matches, ahead of Borussia Dortmund at 27.0%. Bayern's home rate is 35.6% and its away rate 31.7%, yet only 47.8% of its wins came with the opponent scoring. Its high rate comes from winning so often, not from leaking.
For genuine profile fits, read the last column. Hoffenheim's 57.3% is the highest share of wins with BTTS in the table, and Bayer Leverkusen sits at 52.7%. At the bottom, Bielefeld managed 9.3% of 204 matches and Bochum 12.9%, against a club-match average of 19.0%.
| Club | Matches | Won & BTTS | At home | Away | Wins with BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 714 | 33.6% | 35.6% | 31.7% | 47.8% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 714 | 27.0% | 28.6% | 25.5% | 49.7% |
| RB Leipzig | 340 | 26.8% | 31.2% | 22.4% | 50.6% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 714 | 26.2% | 26.9% | 25.5% | 52.7% |
| Hoffenheim | 612 | 20.4% | 24.2% | 16.7% | 57.3% |
| Stuttgart | 646 | 20.1% | 23.2% | 17.0% | 52.4% |
| Augsburg | 510 | 15.1% | 18.4% | 11.8% | 50.3% |
| Köln | 510 | 14.7% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 54.3% |
| Hertha Berlin | 544 | 14.3% | 17.3% | 11.4% | 45.3% |
| Nürnberg | 306 | 13.4% | 16.3% | 10.5% | 50.0% |
| Bochum | 272 | 12.9% | 16.2% | 9.6% | 50.0% |
| Bielefeld | 204 | 9.3% | 12.7% | 5.9% | 40.4% |
'Won & BTTS' = club won and both teams scored, % of the club's matches. League average 19.0%.
These figures span many squads and managers, so I read the table as a description of the window, not a current form guide. The column I lean on most is wins with BTTS, because it separates attacking-but-leaky sides from sides that simply win a lot.
§ 4May runs hottest, February coldest for the combination
May was the strongest month, with one team winning and both scoring in 44.8% of 554 matches. February was the weakest at 34.4% of 777 matches. The bigger swing comes on the road: away sides won with both scoring 20.0% in May against 13.4% in February, while the home figure moved from 21.0% to 24.7%.
Months with fewer than 150 matches left out.
View the data: bundesliga btts & win by month
| Either team won with both scoring, % of matches | |
|---|---|
| Aug | 35.5% |
| Sep | 38.1% |
| Oct | 37.5% |
| Nov | 41.2% |
| Dec | 36.2% |
| Jan | 40.4% |
| Feb | 34.4% |
| Mar | 36.1% |
| Apr | 37.9% |
| May | 44.8% |
My reading is that end-of-season matches open up as stakes thin out for mid-table sides, but this is one league over one window. One caution applies to every chart here: the records hold no BTTS & Win prices, so these are hit rates and fair odds, not returns at real prices. A 44.8% month only helps if the market prices it as something less.
Almanac verdict
- Start from 38.0%
- One team won with both scoring in 38.0% of Bundesliga matches, so this combination is far from a long shot here. Price the home and away legs separately against fair odds of 4.53 and 6.26.
- Weight the away leg
- Away wins & BTTS at 16.0% outnumber away wins to nil at 14.3%. If you back an away winner, the BTTS add-on is the more common route to that win.
- Adjust for the calendar
- May produced 44.8% against 34.4% in February. Shift your base rate with the month rather than relying on a single league-wide number.
Questions bettors ask
How often do both teams score and one team wins in the Bundesliga?
In 38.0% of 6,426 matches from 2005/06–2025/26, which ranks 2nd of 22 European divisions studied. The home side accounted for 22.1% and the away side 16.0%.
Do heavy Bundesliga favourites usually keep a clean sheet when they win?
Slightly more often than not. Under 1.30, favourites won to nil 41.5% and won with both teams scoring 38.4% across 492 matches.
Which Bundesliga club wins with both teams scoring most often?
Bayern Munich, in 33.6% of 714 matches, ahead of Borussia Dortmund at 27.0%. Bielefeld had the lowest rate among clubs with 150+ matches at 9.3%.
I'm Lehua Kahale, based in Honolulu, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at fixed-match.tips — where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
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