Eredivisie BTTS & Win Stats: Favourite Prices and Fair Odds
Twenty seasons of Eredivisie results, priced at fair odds: how the favourite's price shapes win-and-BTTS, which regulars do it away, and what half-time tells you.
Compiled by Lehua KahaleBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief7 min read
- Either team won & BTTS37.8%
- Fair odds, favourite under 1.30 to win & BTTS2.83
- BTTS matches won by the home side39.8%
- Away wins with the home side scoring51.7%
The Eredivisie is one of the friendliest leagues in Europe for the win-and-both-teams-score combination. Of the 22 divisions I study, it ranks 3rd, with either side winning while both teams score in 37.8% of 6,320 matches. I lean on this file before posting today's BTTS & win picks, because a combination price means little until you know how often it actually lands.
The headline is that price drives everything. A favourite under 1.30 wins with both teams scoring 35.4% of the time, which is fair odds of 2.83. Once the favourite drifts to 2.40+, the underdog actually lands the combination slightly more often than the favourite does. Below I go through the price table, the club splits, the long drift in who wins open games, and what the half-time score adds.
§ 1Fair odds tighten steadily as the favourite shortens
Read the table from top to bottom and the favourite's win-and-BTTS rate falls in a clean line. Under 1.30 it is 35.4% with fair odds of 2.83. In the busy 1.70–1.99 band, across 1,259 matches, it drops to 24.9%, or 4.02. The underdog's column climbs the other way, from 3.2% (fair odds 31.21) at the short end to 19.1% (5.25) at 2.40+.
The crossover at the bottom is the line I watch most. With the favourite at 2.40+, across 551 matches, the favourite won with both scoring 17.8% while the underdog managed 19.1%. In those near coin-flip games, the side the market marks down is slightly more likely to win an open match.
| Favourite price | Matches | Fav W&BTTS | Fair odds | Dog W&BTTS | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.30 | 905 | 35.4% | 2.83 | 3.2% | 31.21 |
| 1.30–1.49 | 872 | 31.7% | 3.16 | 6.1% | 16.45 |
| 1.50–1.69 | 1,011 | 28.1% | 3.56 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
| 1.70–1.99 | 1,259 | 24.9% | 4.02 | 13.3% | 7.54 |
| 2.00–2.39 | 1,677 | 21.0% | 4.76 | 16.8% | 5.97 |
| 2.40+ | 551 | 17.8% | 5.62 | 19.1% | 5.25 |
Fair odds = 1 ÷ observed rate, no margin.
A big Eredivisie favourite is less likely to win cleanly than many bettors assume. Short-priced sides concede often enough that the combination is a realistic shape for them, not a long shot. My one serious caveat sits here: the records hold no BTTS & Win prices, so these are fair odds against hit rates, not proven returns at the prices you will actually be offered.
§ 2PSV and Ajax travel well while Heracles stays home
Among the 10 clubs with the most Eredivisie matches since 2005/06, the dumbbells show which ones carry their open style on the road. PSV Eindhoven stand out with the best away rate of the group at 31.4% of 353 away matches. Ajax are the oddity, at 28.8% at home and 29.7% away, the narrowest gap of the ten and slightly better on their travels.
Heracles sit at the other extreme. They won with both teams scoring in 24.0% of home matches but only 12.3% away, the widest split in the group. That is the profile of a side that can outscore visitors at home but rarely wins anywhere in a match where it also concedes.
View the data: eredivisie regulars: btts & win home vs away
| At home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven (351 home · 353 away) | 37.3% | 31.4% |
| Ajax (351 home · 350 away) | 28.8% | 29.7% |
| Feyenoord (352 home · 350 away) | 32.4% | 23.4% |
| AZ Alkmaar (352 home · 349 away) | 25.3% | 20.1% |
| Twente (335 home · 334 away) | 24.2% | 20.4% |
| Utrecht (349 home · 352 away) | 23.8% | 17.3% |
| Heerenveen (352 home · 350 away) | 24.4% | 16.3% |
| Vitesse (317 home · 317 away) | 22.4% | 16.7% |
| Heracles (334 home · 334 away) | 24.0% | 12.3% |
| Groningen (335 home · 335 away) | 20.0% | 13.7% |
These club rates cover many squads and managers, and only the seasons each club spent in the top flight. I treat them as a sense of a club's long-term identity, not a reading of the current team.
§ 3The draw is taking home wins from BTTS games
Across the 3,543 Eredivisie matches where both teams scored, the home side won 39.8%, 32.7% were drawn and the away side won 27.5%. That overall split hides a slow shift. In 2005/06–2007/08 it was 43.8% home, 28.7% draw and 27.5% away. In 2023/24–2025/26 it reads 35.1%, 36.6% and 28.2%.
3,543 matches where both teams scored.
View the data: when both teams score in the eredivisie, who wins?
| Home win | Draw | Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06–2007/08 | 43.8% | 28.7% | 27.5% |
| 2008/09–2010/11 | 43.8% | 32.2% | 24.0% |
| 2011/12–2013/14 | 39.0% | 34.7% | 26.3% |
| 2014/15–2016/17 | 38.5% | 34.2% | 27.3% |
| 2017/18–2019/20 | 41.8% | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| 2020/21–2022/23 | 37.3% | 31.7% | 30.9% |
| 2023/24–2025/26 | 35.1% | 36.6% | 28.2% |
The draw share in that latest block, 36.6% across 535 matches, is the highest of any period in the study. For this market that matters, because a score draw is the outcome that beats both sides of the combination. The away share has barely moved, so the home side has been losing ground to the draw, not to the visitors.
§ 4A level half-time score keeps every outcome live
The heatmap shows what the first half leaves you with. From 1-1 at the break, across 747 matches, 37.5% ended as a home win with both scoring, 32.8% as a score draw and 29.7% as an away win with both scoring. In-play, few states are as open for this combination. From 0-0 it is a different picture: only 6.9% became a home win and BTTS and 5.5% an away win and BTTS, with the score draw at 16.1%.
One-goal leads behave unevenly. From 1-0, the home side went on to win with both scoring 21.2% of the time. When the away side led 0-1, it finished as an away win and BTTS 19.7% of the time, while the home side came back to win in an open game 14.8%.
View the data: eredivisie: btts & win from each half-time score
| Home win & BTTS | Score draw | Away win & BTTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 (1,628) | 6.9% | 16.1% | 5.5% |
| 1-0 (1,299) | 21.2% | 18.4% | 8.9% |
| 0-1 (932) | 14.8% | 24.7% | 19.7% |
| 1-1 (747) | 37.5% | 32.8% | 29.7% |
| 2-0 (501) | 36.9% | 5.8% | 1.6% |
| 0-2 (302) | 3.3% | 11.6% | 40.1% |
| 2-1 (242) | 75.2% | 17.4% | 7.4% |
| 1-2 (170) | 17.6% | 24.7% | 57.6% |
My reading is that a goalless first half takes a lot of value out of this market, while 1-1 gives you a match in which either side can still win it the messy way.
Almanac verdict
- Back short favourites selectively
- Under 1.30 the favourite won with both scoring 35.4%, fair odds 2.83. Only consider it when the price offered is clearly longer than that.
- Respect the underdog at 2.40+
- In that band the underdog landed win and BTTS 19.1% against the favourite's 17.8%. Price both sides before assuming the favourite is the play.
- Factor in the rising draw
- The draw share of BTTS matches reached 36.6% in 2023/24–2025/26. I treat it as the main threat to any home win and BTTS selection.
Questions bettors ask
What are fair odds for an Eredivisie home win and both teams to score?
Across 6,320 matches the home side won with both teams scoring 22.3% of the time, which is fair odds of 4.48. The away equivalent was 15.4%, fair odds 6.48.
Which Eredivisie club wins most often away with both teams scoring?
Among the 10 longest-serving clubs, PSV Eindhoven have the best away win and BTTS rate at 31.4% of 353 away matches. Ajax are almost identical home and away, at 28.8% and 29.7%.
How often does an Eredivisie match at 1-1 at half-time finish as a win with both teams scoring?
From 1-1 at the break, 37.5% ended as a home win with both scoring and 29.7% as an away win with both scoring. The other 32.8% finished as score draws.
I'm Lehua Kahale, based in Honolulu, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at fixed-match.tips — where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
View profile →
