Ligue 1 BTTS & Win: How the Rate Has Climbed Season by Season
France sits low in Europe for winning with both teams scoring, but the rate has been climbing. Here is how seasons, clubs and the home price shape it.
Compiled by Lehua KahaleBoth Teams To Score & Win specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Home win & BTTS, 2016/17–2025/2620.0%
- Home win & BTTS, 2005/06–2014/1517.3%
- Away win & BTTS, 2016/17–2025/2614.2%
- Fair odds, home win & BTTS (all seasons)5.42
BTTS & Win asks a side to do two things at once: win the match and concede along the way. In Ligue 1 that combination has never been common. Of the 22 European divisions studied, France ranks 17th for either team winning with both scoring, at 31.4%. The low ranking hides a clear upward drift, and that drift is what this file is about.
Across 7,656 completed matches from 2005/06–2025/26, the home side won with both teams scoring in 18.4% (fair odds 5.42) and the away side in 13.0% (fair odds 7.71). The headline is that home win & BTTS has climbed from 17.3% to 20.0% between the earlier and recent decade, and away wins with both scoring rose too. My BTTS & win tips page is where I apply this day to day. Here I lay out the evidence behind it.
§ 1Both BTTS & Win lines have drifted upward since 2005/06
The chart tracks each season's home win & BTTS and away win & BTTS rates. The starting point was low. In 2005/06 the home line sat at 14.7% and the away line at 7.9%, the weakest figures of the whole run on both lines. By 2025/26 they read 19.9% and 14.1%, from 306 matches.
The lines move a lot from year to year. The home line's peak came in 2022/23 at 24.7%, while the away line's best year was 2023/24 at 19.6%. The swings between seasons are large enough that I never treat a single year as the new normal.
Each point is one league season.
View the data: ligue 1 btts & win by season
| Home win & BTTS | Away win & BTTS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 14.7% | 7.9% |
| 2006/07 | 18.9% | 10.3% |
| 2007/08 | 15.8% | 14.2% |
| 2008/09 | 17.1% | 11.3% |
| 2009/10 | 16.8% | 12.1% |
| 2010/11 | 16.6% | 11.1% |
| 2011/12 | 18.4% | 12.9% |
| 2012/13 | 18.9% | 10.8% |
| 2013/14 | 16.1% | 13.9% |
| 2014/15 | 19.7% | 13.4% |
| 2015/16 | 15.5% | 13.4% |
| 2016/17 | 18.4% | 10.8% |
| 2017/18 | 20.8% | 10.0% |
| 2018/19 | 16.1% | 13.2% |
| 2019/20 | 19.4% | 11.5% |
| 2020/21 | 19.5% | 16.6% |
| 2021/22 | 20.0% | 14.7% |
| 2022/23 | 24.7% | 16.1% |
| 2023/24 | 16.7% | 19.6% |
| 2024/25 | 24.6% | 16.4% |
| 2025/26 | 19.9% | 14.1% |
One flag: 2019/20 was curtailed at 279 matches, so that point rests on a thinner base than the seasons around it.
§ 2Wins to nil gave ground as both-teams-score rose
Splitting the record into 2005/06–2014/15 and 2016/17–2025/26 removes the season-to-season noise. Home win & BTTS moved from 17.3% to 20.0%, +2.7 points, and away win & BTTS from 11.8% to 14.2%, +2.4 points. BTTS yes went from 47.6% to 52.4%, crossing the halfway mark.
The clean-sheet rows show how it happened. Home wins to nil fell from 27.9% to 24.0%, so part of the home-win pool has moved out of the to-nil column and into the both-score column. Score draws barely changed.
View the data: ligue 1 then and now: btts & win and related outcomes
| 2005/06–2014/15 | 2016/17–2025/26 | |
|---|---|---|
| Home win & BTTS (3,800 v 3,476) | 17.3% | 20.0% |
| Away win & BTTS (3,800 v 3,476) | 11.8% | 14.2% |
| Home win to nil (3,800 v 3,476) | 27.9% | 24.0% |
| Away win to nil (3,800 v 3,476) | 14.0% | 16.6% |
| Score draw (3,800 v 3,476) | 18.5% | 18.2% |
| BTTS yes (3,800 v 3,476) | 47.6% | 52.4% |
The home-away gap widened only slightly, from 5.5 to 5.8 points. Both halves of the market grew together, which tells me this is a league-wide shift in how matches are played rather than a story about one venue.
§ 3Paris Saint-Germain lead eight clubs running above average
Here each of the 12 most-capped clubs is measured against a club-match average of 15.7%, counting home and away matches. Paris Saint-Germain sit +11.6 points clear, winning with both teams scoring in 27.3% of 774 matches. Lyon and Marseille follow closely, and 8 of the 12 clubs sit above the line.
At the other end, Toulouse run −3.6 points below at 12.1% of 700 matches, with Saint-Étienne just alongside. These are sides that either win less often or keep things tighter when they do, which is the opposite of what this market needs.
Club rate = club won and both teams scored, % of all its matches (home and away).
View the data: ligue 1 clubs vs the league btts & win average
| vs average | |
|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | +11.6 pts |
| Lyon | +10.1 pts |
| Marseille | +8.8 pts |
| Monaco | +4.6 pts |
| Lille | +3.2 pts |
| Nice | +1.2 pts |
| Rennes | +0.5 pts |
| Bordeaux | +0.5 pts |
| Montpellier | −0.3 pts |
| Lorient | −0.4 pts |
| Saint-Étienne | −3.5 pts |
| Toulouse | −3.6 pts |
The top of this table is the profile I look for: strong enough to win, open enough to concede. Bear in mind these figures span many squads and managers, and only the seasons each club spent in the division.
§ 4Short home prices lift BTTS & Win but favour clean sheets
The heatmap sorts matches by the home 1X2 price. With the home side under 1.50, across 838 matches, home win & BTTS landed 30.2%, its highest in any band. Home win to nil landed 43.8% in the same band, though, so even here the clean-sheet win is the more common route.
Move to home sides at 3.20+, across 1,314 matches, and the picture flips. Away win & BTTS hits 25.3% while home win & BTTS drops to 9.7%. Score draws range from 12.3% to 21.3% across the bands and are lowest where the favourite is shortest.
Matches per band: Under 1.50 838, 1.50–1.79 1,218, 1.80–2.09 1,401, 2.10–2.49 1,637, 2.50–3.19 1,247, 3.20+ 1,314.
View the data: ligue 1: outcomes by the home win price
| Under 1.50 | 1.50–1.79 | 1.80–2.09 | 2.10–2.49 | 2.50–3.19 | 3.20+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win & BTTS | 30.2% | 24.4% | 19.0% | 17.5% | 14.5% | 9.7% |
| Home win to nil | 43.8% | 32.3% | 29.2% | 27.1% | 18.8% | 11.0% |
| Score draw | 12.3% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 19.1% | 21.3% | 17.2% |
| Away win & BTTS | 5.5% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 15.2% | 25.3% |
The main caveat is this: the records hold no BTTS & Win prices, so everything here is a hit rate and a fair price, not a return at real odds. A fair price only matters once you compare it with what is actually on offer.
Almanac verdict
- Start with the price band
- Home win & BTTS ran at 30.2% with the home side under 1.50 and only 9.7% at 3.20+. Check the 1X2 price before you form any view on the combination.
- Respect the clean sheet
- Even in the shortest band, home win to nil (43.8%) landed more often than home win & BTTS. Have a concrete reason the favourite will concede before backing the combination.
- Use recent-era baselines
- Take 20.0% home and 14.2% away from 2016/17–2025/26 as your starting point rather than the all-seasons figures. Then adjust for club profile, with Paris Saint-Germain at 27.3% at the top of the table.
Questions bettors ask
How often does the home team win and both teams score in Ligue 1?
Across 7,656 matches from 2005/06–2025/26 it happened in 18.4%, fair odds 5.42. In the recent decade, 2016/17–2025/26, the rate was 20.0%.
Which Ligue 1 club wins with both teams scoring most often?
Paris Saint-Germain, at 27.3% of 774 matches, which is +11.6 points above the 15.7% club-match average. Toulouse were lowest among the 12 most-capped clubs at 12.1%.
Is Ligue 1 a good league for BTTS & Win bets?
It ranks 17th of 22 divisions for either team winning with both scoring, at 31.4%, against a range of 27.1% to 38.1%. The rate has been rising, but these past figures describe trends and cannot predict any single match.
I'm Lehua Kahale, based in Honolulu, and I write the both-teams-to-score-and-win tips at fixed-match.tips — where a result and an open game have to land together for the bet to pay.
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