National League BTTS Stats: How the Fifth Tier Compares
The fifth tier edges every EFL division for both teams scoring. Here is how the rate moves by season, which clubs sit at the extremes, and what the Over 2.5 price adds.
Compiled by Amal HaddadBoth Teams To Score specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- National League matches ending BTTS Yes53.5%
- Rank among English divisions, 2016/17-2025/261st of 5
- Fair odds for BTTS Yes (1 ÷ rate)1.87
- Matches analysed, 2011/12-2025/267,686
Non-league football has a reputation as the wild end of the English pyramid: loose defending, long balls into the box, matches that never settle. I wanted to see whether that reputation holds up for both teams to score, and whether the National League really plays differently from the four EFL divisions above it.
It does, but only slightly. Across 7,686 completed matches, both teams scored in 53.5%, which works out at fair odds of 1.87 for Yes and 2.15 for No. This file sits behind my both teams to score tips page for the fifth tier. The margins are thin, so read every number below as a starting point for judging a match, not a verdict on it.
§ 1The National League tops five English divisions for BTTS
Using the same seasons for every division, from 2016/17 to 2025/26, the National League landed BTTS Yes in 53.1% of 4,926 matches. That ranks 1st of 5. The Premier League sits just behind, then League Two and League One almost level, and the Championship is lowest at 51.1%.
The spread from top to bottom is about two points. That is real across this many matches, but it is not the chasm the non-league reputation suggests. Every one of these divisions sits a little above a coin flip on both teams scoring.
View the data: national league btts against other english divisions
| BTTS Yes rate, 2016/17-2025/26 | |
|---|---|
| National League | 53.1% |
| Premier League | 52.8% |
| League Two | 51.6% |
| League One | 51.5% |
| Championship | 51.1% |
What I take from this is tempo rather than chaos. National League sides concede soft goals at both ends often enough to lift the rate, but the jump from the EFL is small. Treat it as a mild Yes lean for the division, and keep the real weight for the two teams in front of you.
§ 2Seasonal swings are wide but the long-run rate holds
Year to year, the line moves a fair amount. The low point was 2018/19 at 47.6%, the only stretch where No clearly had the better of it. The peak was 2023/24 at 59.2%, and 2025/26 stayed high at 56.3% across 552 matches.
The first five seasons in the records averaged 54.3% and the last five averaged 55.5%, a change of +1.2 points. That is a gentle drift upwards, not a new era. One note on the data: 2024/25 is only partly covered, at 180 matches, so I give that point less weight than its neighbours.
View the data: national league btts rate by season
| BTTS Yes | |
|---|---|
| 11/12 | 55.4% |
| 12/13 | 58.0% |
| 13/14 | 51.1% |
| 14/15 | 53.4% |
| 15/16 | 53.4% |
| 16/17 | 50.9% |
| 17/18 | 52.5% |
| 18/19 | 47.6% |
| 19/20 | 55.4% |
| 20/21 | 48.6% |
| 21/22 | 50.2% |
| 22/23 | 56.0% |
| 23/24 | 59.2% |
| 24/25 | 54.4% |
| 25/26 | 56.3% |
For a bettor, the lesson is not to chase a hot season. A division that can swing from below 48% to near 60% will produce runs that look like trends and then fade. I anchor on the 53.5% long-run figure and adjust only when the matchup gives me a reason.
§ 3Fylde lead the BTTS table while Stockport anchor it
Among the 32 clubs with 100 or more National League matches since 2016/17, Fylde stand out at 60.5% across 190 games, a fair price of 1.65. Forest Green and Oldham sit next at 59.8%, with Altrincham at 59.2% over a larger sample of 240. Fylde's split is the interesting part: 57.9% at home but 63.2% away, which suggests a side that keeps playing on the road rather than sitting in.
At the other end, Stockport sit lowest at 46.0% of 126 matches, the same at home and away, with a fair price of 2.17. Wrexham are next-lowest at 46.1%, with a sharp split: 42.2% at home against 50.0% away. Halifax and Solihull, both on large samples, sit just above 48%.
| Club | Matches | BTTS Yes | At home | Away | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fylde | 190 | 60.5% | 57.9% | 63.2% | 1.65 |
| Forest Green | 107 | 59.8% | 63.5% | 56.4% | 1.67 |
| Oldham | 107 | 59.8% | 60.4% | 59.3% | 1.67 |
| Altrincham | 240 | 59.2% | 60.0% | 58.3% | 1.69 |
| York | 199 | 57.3% | 58.0% | 56.6% | 1.75 |
| Chesterfield | 262 | 57.3% | 57.3% | 57.3% | 1.75 |
| Halifax | 368 | 48.4% | 52.2% | 44.5% | 2.07 |
| Solihull | 416 | 48.3% | 47.6% | 49.0% | 2.07 |
| Southend | 197 | 48.2% | 46.9% | 49.5% | 2.07 |
| Braintree Town | 153 | 46.4% | 42.1% | 50.6% | 2.16 |
| Wrexham | 308 | 46.1% | 42.2% | 50.0% | 2.17 |
| Stockport | 126 | 46.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% | 2.17 |
Those home-and-away splits matter more to me than the headline rate. A side that shuts up shop at home but opens up on the road is two different BTTS propositions, and the split tells you which one you are pricing. The bigger clubs in this table were often chasing promotion, and strong home defences fit that profile.
§ 4High Over 2.5 prices do not lift BTTS further
Here I grouped matches by the Over 2.5 chance the market implied, with the margin stripped out, and checked how often both teams scored. Through the middle bands the two move together. When the Over price implied Under 45%, BTTS landed in 47.6% of 605 matches, and it climbs steadily as the goals market gets more expectant.
The top band breaks the pattern. When the Over 2.5 price implied 60%+, averaging 63.3%, BTTS landed in only 51.9% of 324 matches, while Over 2.5 itself landed 61.7%. Those are the games where one side is expected to run up the score, and a lopsided goal-fest often means one team scores freely and the other does not.
Bands with fewer than 100 matches are left out.
View the data: national league: the over 2.5 price as a btts guide
| Implied Over 2.5 | BTTS Yes landed | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 45% (605 matches) | 42.9% | 47.6% | ±4 |
| 45-49% (2,332 matches) | 47.8% | 51.2% | ±2 |
| 50-54% (3,004 matches) | 52.4% | 54.7% | ±1.8 |
| 55-59% (1,376 matches) | 56.9% | 57.6% | ±2.6 |
| 60%+ (324 matches) | 63.3% | 51.9% | ±5.4 |
This is the chart I would bookmark. A short Over 2.5 price in this league often signals a mismatch, not two open defences, so I read it as a warning sign for BTTS Yes rather than support for it. These are observed rates, and no BTTS prices were tested here, so this is a reading guide, not a system.
Almanac verdict
- Start from the long run
- Use 53.5% and fair odds of 1.87 as your baseline for BTTS Yes, rather than whatever the current season feels like. Seasons have ranged from 47.6% to 59.2%, so short runs mislead.
- Check the venue split
- Look at home and away rates, not just the headline figure. Fylde rise to 63.2% away while Wrexham drop to 42.2% at home, and that gap changes the price you should want.
- Distrust very short Overs
- When the Over 2.5 price implies 60%+, BTTS landed only 51.9% while Over 2.5 landed 61.7%. In those mismatches, the goals line usually suits the match better than BTTS Yes.
Questions bettors ask
How often do both teams score in the National League?
Across 7,686 matches from 2011/12 to 2025/26, both teams scored in 53.5%, so BTTS No landed in 46.5%. That converts to fair odds of 1.87 for Yes and 2.15 for No.
Is BTTS more common in the National League than in the EFL?
Slightly. From 2016/17 to 2025/26 the National League rate of 53.1% ranked 1st of 5 English divisions, with the Championship lowest at 51.1%.
Which National League club has the highest BTTS rate?
Fylde, at 60.5% of 190 matches since 2016/17, a fair price of 1.65. Stockport had the lowest rate at 46.0% of 126 matches.
I'm Amal Haddad, based in Abu Dhabi, and I write the both-teams-to-score tips at fixed-match.tips — reading defensive frailty and attacking intent rather than chasing the obvious high-scoring names.
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