Scottish Premiership BTTS Stats: How Short Favourites Cut It
Scotland's top flight sits almost exactly on a coin flip for BTTS. A short home favourite pulls it clearly towards No, and the venue of that favourite matters more than you might think.
Compiled by Amal HaddadBoth Teams To Score specialistReviewed by Marisol Quintana, Editor-in-Chief6 min read
- Scottish Premiership matches ending BTTS Yes49.1%
- BTTS with a home favourite under 1.6042.7%
- BTTS in close games (favourite 2.20+)49.6%
- Fair odds for BTTS No (1 ÷ rate)1.97
The Scottish Premiership is a strange BTTS league to price. A couple of clubs dominate the odds board, and the rest can trade goals at either end. I wanted to know two things: how often both sides score here, and how far a short-priced favourite pulls that rate down. For matchday picks, head to today's BTTS tips; this file is the background those picks lean on.
The headline answer is a near coin flip. Across 4,711 completed league matches from 2005/06-2025/26, both teams scored in 49.1% (95% range ±1.4 points), so BTTS No landed in 50.9%. That gives fair odds of 2.04 for Yes and 1.97 for No. The real story is what happens when the favourite is short and playing at home.
§ 1Short home favourites starve visitors of goals
This chart splits every match by which sides scored, sorted by the favourite's price and venue. Look at the top row first. With a home favourite under 1.60 (883 matches), only the home side scored in 48.5% of games, and the visitors drew a blank in 53.1%. BTTS landed just 42.7%, the lowest rate on the board.
Move down the rows and the picture opens up. In close games, where the favourite is 2.20 or longer, BTTS ran at 49.6% and 9.3% finished goalless. That is the highest blank-blank share in the chart. The standout row is the away favourite at 1.60-2.19, where both teams scored in 60.1% of 464 matches.
View the data: scottish premiership: who scores, by favourite
| Both scored | Only home scored | Only away scored | Neither | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home fav under 1.60 (883) | 42.7% | 48.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% |
| Home fav 1.60-2.19 (1,282) | 48.8% | 30.0% | 13.3% | 8.0% |
| Close game (2.20+) (1,521) | 49.6% | 21.3% | 19.9% | 9.3% |
| Away fav 1.60-2.19 (464) | 60.1% | 10.8% | 23.1% | 6.0% |
| Away fav under 1.60 (516) | 49.2% | 6.4% | 40.1% | 4.3% |
My read is about game state. A big Scottish home side tends to go ahead early and keep pressing, so the visitor rarely gets a foothold. A middling away favourite is a different match: the home team has crowd and intent, and the away side has enough quality to answer.
§ 2Away favourites leave the back door open
The dumbbell puts home and away favourites side by side at the same price band. Overall, BTTS hit 47.4% over 3,104 matches with a home favourite and 52.4% over 1,562 with an away favourite. The gap is widest at the short end. Under 1.50, it was 40.9% with a home favourite (722 matches) against 48.4% with an away favourite (395 matches).
In the 1.50-1.99 band the split goes further, at 47.1% for home favourites against 58.8% for away. By 2.00-2.59 the two meet almost exactly, at 51.4% and 50.9%. Once neither side is clearly stronger, venue stops changing much.
Bands with fewer than 100 matches on either side are left out.
View the data: scottish premiership: btts with a home vs an away favourite
| Home favourite | Away favourite | |
|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 (722 / 395 matches) | 40.9% | 48.4% |
| 1.50-1.99 (951 / 415 matches) | 47.1% | 58.8% |
| 2.00-2.59 (1,359 / 682 matches) | 51.4% | 50.9% |
Even a heavy away favourite rarely shuts the home side out completely. Under 1.60 away, the hosts failed to score in 44.4%, well below what visitors suffer against a short home side. To me that is home teams carrying genuine attacking intent at their own ground, even when outclassed.
§ 3November runs hottest, January goes cold
By calendar month the rate stays in a fairly tight band. November was the highest at 52.6% (420 matches) and January the lowest at 44.5% (461 matches), a gap of 8.1 points. September and October also ran above the league average, at 51.6% and 50.8%.
I would hold this one loosely. Winter pitches, squad changes in the transfer window and the odd heavy schedule could all play a part in January. A swing of this size can also come from noise. Treat the month as a nudge, not a reason to bet.
Months with fewer than 100 matches are left out.
View the data: scottish premiership btts by month
| BTTS Yes rate by calendar month (matches in brackets) | |
|---|---|
| Aug (495) | 47.7% |
| Sep (409) | 51.6% |
| Oct (457) | 50.8% |
| Nov (420) | 52.6% |
| Dec (648) | 48.6% |
| Jan (461) | 44.5% |
| Feb (513) | 48.5% |
| Mar (407) | 48.9% |
| Apr (451) | 48.6% |
| May (417) | 50.4% |
§ 4Promoted clubs concede more and play more open games
Here each club's matches are counted separately. Newly promoted sides saw BTTS land in 52.1% of 937 team-matches, against 48.6% for established clubs. The driver is defence rather than attack. Promoted clubs scored in 69.3%, close to the 71.0% for everyone else, but kept clean sheets in only 24.7% against 29.7%.
Venue sharpens it. At home, promoted clubs saw BTTS in 55.0% of 467 matches and scored in 75.8%. Away it dropped to 49.1% of 470, with a clean sheet in only 21.9%.
| Group | Team-matches | BTTS Yes | Scored | Clean sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newly promoted clubs | 937 | 52.1% | 69.3% | 24.7% |
| Established clubs | 8,029 | 48.6% | 71.0% | 29.7% |
| Promoted at home | 467 | 55.0% | 75.8% | 27.4% |
| Promoted away | 470 | 49.1% | 62.8% | 21.9% |
A club counts as newly promoted in a season it did not play in this division the season before.
The main caveat applies across this whole file. No quoted BTTS prices are in these records, so the fair odds show what the observed rates imply rather than any proven edge. Differences of a few points can also come from chance, especially with post-split fixtures and a partly covered 2024/25 season mixed in.
Almanac verdict
- Lean No with short home favourites
- With a home favourite under 1.60, visitors failed to score in 53.1% and BTTS landed only 42.7%. Price No against that baseline, not the league's 49.1%.
- Respect the home underdog
- Away favourites at 1.60-2.19 saw BTTS in 60.1% of matches. Only take Yes when the quoted price is longer than that rate implies.
- Back promoted sides to concede
- Promoted clubs kept clean sheets in just 24.7% and saw BTTS in 55.0% at home. Use that as a tilt towards Yes in their home games, not as a system.
Questions bettors ask
How often do both teams score in the Scottish Premiership?
Both teams scored in 49.1% of 4,711 completed matches from 2005/06-2025/26. That implies fair odds of 2.04 for BTTS Yes and 1.97 for BTTS No.
Does a big home favourite lower the BTTS rate in Scotland?
Yes, clearly. With a home favourite under 1.60, BTTS landed 42.7%, and under 1.50 it fell to 40.9% across 722 matches.
Which month has the most BTTS in the Scottish Premiership?
November ran highest at 52.6% across 420 matches, and January lowest at 44.5%. The 8.1-point gap is small enough that I treat it as a nudge rather than a rule.
I'm Amal Haddad, based in Abu Dhabi, and I write the both-teams-to-score tips at fixed-match.tips — reading defensive frailty and attacking intent rather than chasing the obvious high-scoring names.
View profile →
